diff --git a/PANDAS.ipynb b/PANDAS.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5c38303 --- /dev/null +++ b/PANDAS.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,1128 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "id": "1edeef46", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "import pandas as pd" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "id": "561745bf", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "coffee = pd.read_csv('./warmup-data\\coffee.csv')" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "id": "700bd8ea", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
| \n", + " | Day | \n", + "Coffee Type | \n", + "Units Sold | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "Monday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "25 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "Monday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "15 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "Tuesday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "30 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "Tuesday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "20 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "Wednesday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Day | \n", + "Coffee Type | \n", + "Units Sold | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "Monday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "25 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "Monday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "15 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "Tuesday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "30 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "Tuesday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "20 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "Wednesday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| 5 | \n", + "Wednesday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "25 | \n", + "
| 6 | \n", + "Thursday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "40 | \n", + "
| 7 | \n", + "Thursday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "30 | \n", + "
| 8 | \n", + "Friday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "45 | \n", + "
| 9 | \n", + "Friday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| 10 | \n", + "Saturday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "45 | \n", + "
| 11 | \n", + "Saturday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| 12 | \n", + "Sunday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "45 | \n", + "
| 13 | \n", + "Sunday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | year | \n", + "type | \n", + "discipline | \n", + "event | \n", + "as | \n", + "athlete_id | \n", + "noc | \n", + "team | \n", + "place | \n", + "tied | \n", + "medal | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "1912.0 | \n", + "Summer | \n", + "Tennis | \n", + "Singles, Men (Olympic) | \n", + "Jean-François Blanchy | \n", + "1 | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "None | \n", + "17.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "None | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "1912.0 | \n", + "Summer | \n", + "Tennis | \n", + "Doubles, Men (Olympic) | \n", + "Jean-François Blanchy | \n", + "1 | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "Jean Montariol | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "False | \n", + "None | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "1920.0 | \n", + "Summer | \n", + "Tennis | \n", + "Singles, Men (Olympic) | \n", + "Jean-François Blanchy | \n", + "1 | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "None | \n", + "32.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "None | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "1920.0 | \n", + "Summer | \n", + "Tennis | \n", + "Doubles, Mixed (Olympic) | \n", + "Jean-François Blanchy | \n", + "1 | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "Jeanne Vaussard | \n", + "8.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "None | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "1920.0 | \n", + "Summer | \n", + "Tennis | \n", + "Doubles, Men (Olympic) | \n", + "Jean-François Blanchy | \n", + "1 | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "Jacques Brugnon | \n", + "4.0 | \n", + "False | \n", + "None | \n", + "
| \n", + " | athlete_id | \n", + "name | \n", + "born_date | \n", + "born_city | \n", + "born_region | \n", + "born_country | \n", + "NOC | \n", + "height_cm | \n", + "weight_kg | \n", + "died_date | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "Jean-François Blanchy | \n", + "1886-12-12 | \n", + "Bordeaux | \n", + "Gironde | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "France | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "1960-10-02 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "Arnaud Boetsch | \n", + "1969-04-01 | \n", + "Meulan | \n", + "Yvelines | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "France | \n", + "183.0 | \n", + "76.0 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "Jean Borotra | \n", + "1898-08-13 | \n", + "Biarritz | \n", + "Pyrénées-Atlantiques | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "France | \n", + "183.0 | \n", + "76.0 | \n", + "1994-07-17 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "Jacques Brugnon | \n", + "1895-05-11 | \n", + "Paris VIIIe | \n", + "Paris | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "France | \n", + "168.0 | \n", + "64.0 | \n", + "1978-03-20 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "5 | \n", + "Albert Canet | \n", + "1878-04-17 | \n", + "Wandsworth | \n", + "England | \n", + "GBR | \n", + "France | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "1930-07-25 | \n", + "
| ... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "
| 145495 | \n", + "149222 | \n", + "Polina Luchnikova | \n", + "2002-01-30 | \n", + "Serov | \n", + "Sverdlovsk | \n", + "RUS | \n", + "ROC | \n", + "167.0 | \n", + "61.0 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 145496 | \n", + "149223 | \n", + "Valeriya Merkusheva | \n", + "1999-09-20 | \n", + "Moskva (Moscow) | \n", + "Moskva | \n", + "RUS | \n", + "ROC | \n", + "168.0 | \n", + "65.0 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 145497 | \n", + "149224 | \n", + "Yuliya Smirnova | \n", + "1998-05-08 | \n", + "Kotlas | \n", + "Arkhangelsk | \n", + "RUS | \n", + "ROC | \n", + "163.0 | \n", + "55.0 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 145498 | \n", + "149225 | \n", + "André Foussard | \n", + "1899-05-19 | \n", + "Niort | \n", + "Deux-Sèvres | \n", + "FRA | \n", + "France | \n", + "166.0 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "1986-03-18 | \n", + "
| 145499 | \n", + "149814 | \n", + "Bill Phillips | \n", + "1913-07-15 | \n", + "Dulwich Hill | \n", + "New South Wales | \n", + "AUS | \n", + "Australia | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "2003-10-20 | \n", + "
145500 rows × 10 columns
\n", + "| \n", + " | Day | \n", + "Coffee Type | \n", + "Units Sold | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "Monday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "25 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "Monday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "15 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "Tuesday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "30 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "Tuesday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "20 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "Wednesday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| 5 | \n", + "Wednesday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "25 | \n", + "
| 6 | \n", + "Thursday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "40 | \n", + "
| 7 | \n", + "Thursday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "30 | \n", + "
| 8 | \n", + "Friday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "45 | \n", + "
| 9 | \n", + "Friday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| 10 | \n", + "Saturday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "45 | \n", + "
| 11 | \n", + "Saturday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| 12 | \n", + "Sunday | \n", + "Espresso | \n", + "45 | \n", + "
| 13 | \n", + "Sunday | \n", + "Latte | \n", + "35 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.8785 | \n", + "0.8661 | \n", + "2371.9444 | \n", + "2848.4712 | \n", + "0.3414 | \n", + "0.3077 | \n", + "-0.7691 | \n", + "0.0867 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "0.9203 | \n", + "0.9057 | \n", + "2493.4358 | \n", + "2982.9084 | \n", + "0.3867 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "-0.9746 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.9717 | \n", + "0.9226 | \n", + "2620.3889 | \n", + "3030.3888 | \n", + "0.3782 | \n", + "0.3174 | \n", + "-1.2021 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.9848 | \n", + "0.9592 | \n", + "2654.8320 | \n", + "3151.6346 | \n", + "0.3717 | \n", + "0.3239 | \n", + "-1.3184 | \n", + "0.1033 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "0.9881 | \n", + "0.9504 | \n", + "2667.2214 | \n", + "3134.6858 | \n", + "0.3730 | \n", + "0.3582 | \n", + "-0.8843 | \n", + "0.0433 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.0497 | \n", + "1.0276 | \n", + "2841.5133 | \n", + "3376.4511 | \n", + "0.4783 | \n", + "0.3572 | \n", + "-1.6950 | \n", + "0.0433 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2341 | \n", + "1.2541 | \n", + "3350.9172 | \n", + "4116.3771 | \n", + "0.5431 | \n", + "0.3957 | \n", + "-3.6817 | \n", + "0.3400 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.2709 | \n", + "1.1613 | \n", + "3420.5556 | \n", + "3832.5424 | \n", + "0.4493 | \n", + "0.4708 | \n", + "-1.6357 | \n", + "1.4600 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3200 | \n", + "1.2390 | \n", + "3566.5046 | \n", + "4078.8966 | \n", + "0.4982 | \n", + "0.4471 | \n", + "-2.4831 | \n", + "0.8067 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3607 | \n", + "1.2647 | \n", + "3675.4920 | \n", + "4163.8263 | \n", + "0.5076 | \n", + "0.4597 | \n", + "-2.6003 | \n", + "0.5067 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4129 | \n", + "1.3465 | \n", + "3818.2295 | \n", + "4434.9711 | \n", + "0.5144 | \n", + "0.4825 | \n", + "-3.0633 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4113 | \n", + "1.3601 | \n", + "3825.4573 | \n", + "4471.3327 | \n", + "0.5463 | \n", + "0.4492 | \n", + "-3.8710 | \n", + "0.3900 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4667 | \n", + "1.3699 | \n", + "3973.2837 | \n", + "4507.6176 | \n", + "0.5618 | \n", + "0.4855 | \n", + "-3.7416 | \n", + "0.5667 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4798 | \n", + "1.3764 | \n", + "4006.5268 | \n", + "4528.5823 | \n", + "0.5593 | \n", + "0.4862 | \n", + "-3.7190 | \n", + "0.6000 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4943 | \n", + "1.4340 | \n", + "4044.7614 | \n", + "4716.9063 | \n", + "0.5594 | \n", + "0.4853 | \n", + "-4.0576 | \n", + "0.4833 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4943 | \n", + "1.4340 | \n", + "4044.7614 | \n", + "4716.9062 | \n", + "0.5594 | \n", + "0.4853 | \n", + "-4.0576 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5528 | \n", + "1.4938 | \n", + "4200.7043 | \n", + "4915.8724 | \n", + "0.5670 | \n", + "0.5113 | \n", + "-4.2732 | \n", + "0.3700 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.6079 | \n", + "1.5222 | \n", + "4356.1454 | \n", + "5007.8695 | \n", + "0.5972 | \n", + "0.5234 | \n", + "-4.8477 | \n", + "0.4400 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.6558 | \n", + "1.5574 | \n", + "4486.5551 | \n", + "5121.2932 | \n", + "0.6131 | \n", + "0.5274 | \n", + "-5.2629 | \n", + "0.3600 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.7161 | \n", + "1.6540 | \n", + "4648.4056 | \n", + "5437.7330 | \n", + "0.6227 | \n", + "0.5358 | \n", + "-6.1684 | \n", + "2.2033 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.8471 | \n", + "1.8014 | \n", + "4984.8372 | \n", + "5940.0049 | \n", + "0.6377 | \n", + "0.6610 | \n", + "-5.7452 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.8471 | \n", + "1.8014 | \n", + "4984.8380 | \n", + "5940.0059 | \n", + "0.6377 | \n", + "0.6610 | \n", + "-5.7452 | \n", + "0.3100 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "1.0088 | \n", + "0.9750 | \n", + "2688.3333 | \n", + "3245.9077 | \n", + "0.3015 | \n", + "0.3336 | \n", + "-0.0157 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "1.0897 | \n", + "1.0115 | \n", + "2925.8333 | \n", + "3295.3895 | \n", + "0.4402 | \n", + "0.3599 | \n", + "-1.5753 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.5370 | \n", + "0.6119 | \n", + "1501.6667 | \n", + "2004.1166 | \n", + "0.2826 | \n", + "0.2295 | \n", + "-0.7165 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.8785 | \n", + "0.8661 | \n", + "2371.9444 | \n", + "2848.4712 | \n", + "0.3414 | \n", + "0.3077 | \n", + "-0.7691 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.2437 | \n", + "0.1804 | \n", + "622.9709 | \n", + "597.3905 | \n", + "0.0703 | \n", + "0.0563 | \n", + "0.6378 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.4756 | \n", + "0.4471 | \n", + "469.6667 | \n", + "566.9786 | \n", + "0.2292 | \n", + "0.2540 | \n", + "0.5917 | \n", + "0.0900 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.5818 | \n", + "0.5372 | \n", + "546.3446 | \n", + "652.9646 | \n", + "0.2990 | \n", + "0.2519 | \n", + "0.4496 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.6820 | \n", + "0.6246 | \n", + "638.0273 | \n", + "767.7428 | \n", + "0.3501 | \n", + "0.2905 | \n", + "0.2717 | \n", + "0.7300 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "0.6980 | \n", + "0.8199 | \n", + "642.2334 | \n", + "976.3537 | \n", + "0.3079 | \n", + "0.2868 | \n", + "-0.1856 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7288 | \n", + "0.6787 | \n", + "673.9344 | \n", + "830.3484 | \n", + "0.3694 | \n", + "0.2971 | \n", + "0.1392 | \n", + "0.6800 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7869 | \n", + "0.7594 | \n", + "698.9098 | \n", + "914.9418 | \n", + "0.3758 | \n", + "0.3021 | \n", + "-0.0536 | \n", + "0.4500 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "0.7245 | \n", + "0.8455 | \n", + "709.0791 | \n", + "1033.4271 | \n", + "0.3315 | \n", + "0.3313 | \n", + "-0.3214 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8193 | \n", + "0.7856 | \n", + "767.9463 | \n", + "950.4880 | \n", + "0.3981 | \n", + "0.3557 | \n", + "-0.1146 | \n", + "0.5133 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "0.8828 | \n", + "0.8657 | \n", + "771.9644 | \n", + "1001.9305 | \n", + "0.4722 | \n", + "0.3238 | \n", + "-0.2634 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8724 | \n", + "0.7923 | \n", + "831.5985 | \n", + "978.2440 | \n", + "0.4105 | \n", + "0.3839 | \n", + "-0.1957 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8382 | \n", + "0.7707 | \n", + "842.7825 | \n", + "980.5290 | \n", + "0.3999 | \n", + "0.4041 | \n", + "-0.2122 | \n", + "0.5533 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9290 | \n", + "0.8781 | \n", + "897.9454 | \n", + "1068.0557 | \n", + "0.4295 | \n", + "0.4165 | \n", + "-0.4068 | \n", + "2.1833 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0311 | \n", + "0.9305 | \n", + "941.5337 | \n", + "1105.9999 | \n", + "0.4889 | \n", + "0.3981 | \n", + "-0.5205 | \n", + "0.3533 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9069 | \n", + "0.8039 | \n", + "948.3992 | \n", + "1088.6809 | \n", + "0.4607 | \n", + "0.5845 | \n", + "-0.6224 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.8425 | \n", + "0.7757 | \n", + "953.3432 | \n", + "1114.2061 | \n", + "0.4728 | \n", + "0.4034 | \n", + "-0.8409 | \n", + "0.1467 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0249 | \n", + "0.9266 | \n", + "1082.7297 | \n", + "1241.9510 | \n", + "0.5843 | \n", + "0.5612 | \n", + "-1.0511 | \n", + "0.4167 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.2218 | \n", + "1.1229 | \n", + "1221.3333 | \n", + "1441.2281 | \n", + "0.5715 | \n", + "0.7341 | \n", + "-1.6466 | \n", + "0.0600 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9583 | \n", + "1.6159 | \n", + "1515.4031 | \n", + "1675.1403 | \n", + "0.7873 | \n", + "0.6596 | \n", + "-3.6182 | \n", + "0.3833 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9583 | \n", + "1.6159 | \n", + "1515.4055 | \n", + "1675.1431 | \n", + "0.7873 | \n", + "0.6596 | \n", + "-3.6182 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.0790 | \n", + "1.7274 | \n", + "1704.3072 | \n", + "1892.0937 | \n", + "0.8746 | \n", + "0.8860 | \n", + "-4.2842 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.3203 | \n", + "2.9213 | \n", + "3644.3900 | \n", + "4212.3724 | \n", + "1.6983 | \n", + "1.0598 | \n", + "-27.8544 | \n", + "0.5133 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.3203 | \n", + "2.9213 | \n", + "3644.4062 | \n", + "4212.3853 | \n", + "1.6983 | \n", + "1.0598 | \n", + "-27.8542 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.4459 | \n", + "0.4238 | \n", + "697.0000 | \n", + "823.6334 | \n", + "0.3207 | \n", + "0.3946 | \n", + "0.3686 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.4947 | \n", + "0.4715 | \n", + "406.0000 | \n", + "499.1913 | \n", + "0.1832 | \n", + "0.2069 | \n", + "0.6011 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.4862 | \n", + "0.4460 | \n", + "306.0000 | \n", + "378.1111 | \n", + "0.1838 | \n", + "0.1606 | \n", + "0.8056 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.4756 | \n", + "0.4471 | \n", + "469.6667 | \n", + "566.9786 | \n", + "0.2292 | \n", + "0.2540 | \n", + "0.5917 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.0213 | \n", + "0.0195 | \n", + "165.8520 | \n", + "188.0937 | \n", + "0.0647 | \n", + "0.1012 | \n", + "0.1785 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.9580 | \n", + "1.0207 | \n", + "4689.5833 | \n", + "6024.0112 | \n", + "0.2916 | \n", + "0.2753 | \n", + "-0.0599 | \n", + "0.0933 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.9781 | \n", + "1.0350 | \n", + "4788.8657 | \n", + "6109.9664 | \n", + "0.2962 | \n", + "0.2783 | \n", + "-0.0911 | \n", + "0.1467 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.0133 | \n", + "1.0882 | \n", + "4924.4485 | \n", + "6354.8324 | \n", + "0.3363 | \n", + "0.2944 | \n", + "-0.0167 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.0217 | \n", + "1.0900 | \n", + "4972.3712 | \n", + "6367.9338 | \n", + "0.3492 | \n", + "0.2967 | \n", + "-0.0242 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "1.0255 | \n", + "1.0778 | \n", + "5028.2516 | \n", + "6374.0517 | \n", + "0.3231 | \n", + "0.2884 | \n", + "-0.2205 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1012 | \n", + "1.1968 | \n", + "5282.1634 | \n", + "6891.4681 | \n", + "0.3096 | \n", + "0.3141 | \n", + "-0.2315 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.0939 | \n", + "1.1733 | \n", + "5294.4492 | \n", + "6823.0106 | \n", + "0.3179 | \n", + "0.3199 | \n", + "-0.1415 | \n", + "0.0600 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1484 | \n", + "1.2509 | \n", + "5515.1974 | \n", + "7208.7508 | \n", + "0.3175 | \n", + "0.3303 | \n", + "-0.3666 | \n", + "0.5767 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1780 | \n", + "1.2883 | \n", + "5681.1253 | \n", + "7456.8136 | \n", + "0.3250 | \n", + "0.3361 | \n", + "-0.4298 | \n", + "0.6167 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1805 | \n", + "1.3221 | \n", + "5702.3490 | \n", + "7677.4898 | \n", + "0.3332 | \n", + "0.3368 | \n", + "-0.5074 | \n", + "0.4567 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2495 | \n", + "1.3713 | \n", + "6050.6674 | \n", + "7966.2979 | \n", + "0.3419 | \n", + "0.3568 | \n", + "-0.6161 | \n", + "0.4467 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3063 | \n", + "1.4067 | \n", + "6368.2336 | \n", + "8234.7691 | \n", + "0.3749 | \n", + "0.3686 | \n", + "-0.7667 | \n", + "0.6467 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.4582 | \n", + "1.4750 | \n", + "7061.1111 | \n", + "8608.1664 | \n", + "0.4495 | \n", + "0.4024 | \n", + "-1.2218 | \n", + "0.0700 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5154 | \n", + "1.6136 | \n", + "7482.0225 | \n", + "9573.3569 | \n", + "0.4357 | \n", + "0.4532 | \n", + "-1.5419 | \n", + "0.3700 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5188 | \n", + "1.6031 | \n", + "7528.6594 | \n", + "9522.2432 | \n", + "0.4549 | \n", + "0.5132 | \n", + "-1.5329 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5581 | \n", + "1.7453 | \n", + "7730.0676 | \n", + "10415.6756 | \n", + "0.4475 | \n", + "0.4486 | \n", + "-2.1659 | \n", + "2.2900 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9008 | \n", + "1.8764 | \n", + "9580.7412 | \n", + "11345.9502 | \n", + "0.6003 | \n", + "0.5664 | \n", + "-3.3268 | \n", + "0.3900 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9008 | \n", + "1.8764 | \n", + "9580.7417 | \n", + "11345.9506 | \n", + "0.6003 | \n", + "0.5664 | \n", + "-3.3268 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9496 | \n", + "1.9311 | \n", + "9803.8648 | \n", + "11641.2652 | \n", + "0.6109 | \n", + "0.5827 | \n", + "-3.4093 | \n", + "0.5233 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9533 | \n", + "1.9364 | \n", + "9820.9040 | \n", + "11669.9798 | \n", + "0.6088 | \n", + "0.5840 | \n", + "-3.4177 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9533 | \n", + "1.9364 | \n", + "9820.9040 | \n", + "11669.9798 | \n", + "0.6088 | \n", + "0.5840 | \n", + "-3.4177 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.2417 | \n", + "2.1689 | \n", + "11475.7946 | \n", + "13373.2313 | \n", + "0.7684 | \n", + "0.5859 | \n", + "-6.7532 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "1.2067 | \n", + "1.2365 | \n", + "5520.8333 | \n", + "6681.4809 | \n", + "0.3835 | \n", + "0.3417 | \n", + "0.3965 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.8000 | \n", + "0.8241 | \n", + "4308.3333 | \n", + "5368.2807 | \n", + "0.2527 | \n", + "0.2592 | \n", + "0.0665 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.8673 | \n", + "1.0016 | \n", + "4239.5833 | \n", + "6022.2720 | \n", + "0.2387 | \n", + "0.2252 | \n", + "-0.6427 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.9580 | \n", + "1.0207 | \n", + "4689.5833 | \n", + "6024.0112 | \n", + "0.2916 | \n", + "0.2753 | \n", + "-0.0599 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.1780 | \n", + "0.1689 | \n", + "588.4522 | \n", + "536.1132 | \n", + "0.0652 | \n", + "0.0489 | \n", + "0.4336 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "2.6611 | \n", + "2.5345 | \n", + "2608.5284 | \n", + "2993.7199 | \n", + "0.4659 | \n", + "0.5499 | \n", + "-2.2206 | \n", + "0.1333 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "2.7370 | \n", + "2.5943 | \n", + "2731.4505 | \n", + "3142.9924 | \n", + "0.4601 | \n", + "0.5858 | \n", + "-2.6913 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "2.7089 | \n", + "2.6588 | \n", + "2738.2014 | \n", + "3237.0547 | \n", + "0.4692 | \n", + "0.7035 | \n", + "-2.3068 | \n", + "0.0600 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "2.6328 | \n", + "2.2264 | \n", + "3063.2507 | \n", + "3357.8675 | \n", + "0.5869 | \n", + "0.5536 | \n", + "-2.5555 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.7413 | \n", + "2.4655 | \n", + "3335.4398 | \n", + "3688.0977 | \n", + "0.4556 | \n", + "0.6187 | \n", + "-3.2722 | \n", + "0.7233 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.2076 | \n", + "3.2213 | \n", + "3363.7685 | \n", + "4193.2688 | \n", + "0.5872 | \n", + "0.6456 | \n", + "-4.7867 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.7927 | \n", + "2.5627 | \n", + "3374.6211 | \n", + "3936.8261 | \n", + "0.4690 | \n", + "0.6636 | \n", + "-3.8164 | \n", + "0.4667 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.7610 | \n", + "2.5008 | \n", + "3421.6350 | \n", + "3847.7572 | \n", + "0.4588 | \n", + "0.6298 | \n", + "-3.6133 | \n", + "0.6133 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.7559 | \n", + "2.5051 | \n", + "3534.7314 | \n", + "3955.5234 | \n", + "0.4614 | \n", + "0.6278 | \n", + "-3.8088 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.9176 | \n", + "2.5978 | \n", + "3549.6891 | \n", + "3932.0285 | \n", + "0.5023 | \n", + "0.6998 | \n", + "-3.7786 | \n", + "0.5167 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.8514 | \n", + "2.5553 | \n", + "3551.8115 | \n", + "3995.8635 | \n", + "0.4862 | \n", + "0.6769 | \n", + "-3.9364 | \n", + "0.3633 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.7675 | \n", + "2.4881 | \n", + "3555.5572 | \n", + "3986.5527 | \n", + "0.4615 | \n", + "0.6351 | \n", + "-3.9697 | \n", + "0.4033 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.9152 | \n", + "2.7978 | \n", + "3590.0529 | \n", + "4426.3725 | \n", + "0.5001 | \n", + "0.7421 | \n", + "-5.0691 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.9152 | \n", + "2.7978 | \n", + "3590.0532 | \n", + "4426.3732 | \n", + "0.5001 | \n", + "0.7421 | \n", + "-5.0691 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.8532 | \n", + "2.5410 | \n", + "3624.1116 | \n", + "4105.9679 | \n", + "0.4930 | \n", + "0.6954 | \n", + "-4.2054 | \n", + "2.2500 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.2672 | \n", + "3.1687 | \n", + "3730.8441 | \n", + "4588.2984 | \n", + "0.5576 | \n", + "0.8840 | \n", + "-5.4611 | \n", + "0.3333 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.3190 | \n", + "2.9964 | \n", + "3804.4090 | \n", + "4177.6021 | \n", + "0.5732 | \n", + "0.8630 | \n", + "-4.3615 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.5811 | \n", + "3.4146 | \n", + "3856.3886 | \n", + "4695.6713 | \n", + "0.6574 | \n", + "0.9603 | \n", + "-5.7811 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "3.5811 | \n", + "3.4146 | \n", + "3856.3886 | \n", + "4695.6691 | \n", + "0.6574 | \n", + "0.9603 | \n", + "-5.7811 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "3.1667 | \n", + "2.9167 | \n", + "3943.7569 | \n", + "4239.2904 | \n", + "0.5592 | \n", + "0.7572 | \n", + "-4.5598 | \n", + "0.0867 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "3.1092 | \n", + "2.7482 | \n", + "4225.4141 | \n", + "4585.1770 | \n", + "0.5556 | \n", + "0.7510 | \n", + "-5.4651 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "3.3925 | \n", + "2.9001 | \n", + "5080.3565 | \n", + "5386.4482 | \n", + "0.6506 | \n", + "0.8985 | \n", + "-8.0542 | \n", + "0.0600 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "1.3767 | \n", + "1.1987 | \n", + "1516.8284 | \n", + "2005.1332 | \n", + "0.1962 | \n", + "0.2304 | \n", + "-0.2434 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.5451 | \n", + "0.4907 | \n", + "1561.3677 | \n", + "1803.8195 | \n", + "0.1175 | \n", + "0.1263 | \n", + "0.3853 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.5405 | \n", + "0.5585 | \n", + "4858.3333 | \n", + "6800.2638 | \n", + "0.1861 | \n", + "0.1794 | \n", + "0.7210 | \n", + "0.0867 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.6680 | \n", + "0.6208 | \n", + "5858.5352 | \n", + "7508.7012 | \n", + "0.2404 | \n", + "0.2161 | \n", + "0.6560 | \n", + "0.1033 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.6835 | \n", + "0.5957 | \n", + "5955.0896 | \n", + "7221.6933 | \n", + "0.2673 | \n", + "0.2325 | \n", + "0.6794 | \n", + "0.0700 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0339 | \n", + "1.0085 | \n", + "9250.9954 | \n", + "12340.9468 | \n", + "0.3638 | \n", + "0.2847 | \n", + "0.0771 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.0989 | \n", + "1.0930 | \n", + "9605.5736 | \n", + "13321.9363 | \n", + "0.5054 | \n", + "0.3424 | \n", + "-0.0709 | \n", + "0.0900 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1688 | \n", + "1.0690 | \n", + "10368.0990 | \n", + "13276.7865 | \n", + "0.5265 | \n", + "0.3550 | \n", + "-0.0606 | \n", + "0.7500 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1947 | \n", + "1.0316 | \n", + "10417.2563 | \n", + "12672.2735 | \n", + "0.5188 | \n", + "0.3662 | \n", + "0.0260 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.1487 | \n", + "1.1262 | \n", + "10513.2768 | \n", + "14048.9094 | \n", + "0.5094 | \n", + "0.3793 | \n", + "-0.1838 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1797 | \n", + "1.0646 | \n", + "10658.2047 | \n", + "13383.7456 | \n", + "0.5255 | \n", + "0.3698 | \n", + "-0.0732 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.2721 | \n", + "1.1786 | \n", + "10703.5155 | \n", + "14065.7167 | \n", + "0.6399 | \n", + "0.3654 | \n", + "-0.2093 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1193 | \n", + "0.9839 | \n", + "10976.4545 | \n", + "13172.0051 | \n", + "0.4253 | \n", + "0.4043 | \n", + "-0.1081 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3573 | \n", + "1.1712 | \n", + "11597.3470 | \n", + "14192.5712 | \n", + "0.5947 | \n", + "0.3892 | \n", + "-0.2167 | \n", + "0.5933 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2954 | \n", + "1.2513 | \n", + "11742.4511 | \n", + "15753.2600 | \n", + "0.5299 | \n", + "0.3981 | \n", + "-0.4906 | \n", + "1.9233 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2832 | \n", + "1.1561 | \n", + "11872.6646 | \n", + "14860.8778 | \n", + "0.5716 | \n", + "0.4138 | \n", + "-0.3324 | \n", + "0.4467 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3919 | \n", + "1.1688 | \n", + "12076.9660 | \n", + "14359.6844 | \n", + "0.5621 | \n", + "0.4168 | \n", + "-0.2561 | \n", + "0.5467 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3870 | \n", + "1.2051 | \n", + "13476.6222 | \n", + "15720.2729 | \n", + "0.6311 | \n", + "0.4799 | \n", + "-0.5560 | \n", + "0.4067 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.6578 | \n", + "1.3644 | \n", + "13511.6637 | \n", + "15888.6210 | \n", + "0.5353 | \n", + "0.5252 | \n", + "-0.7763 | \n", + "0.4933 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.6578 | \n", + "1.3644 | \n", + "13511.6638 | \n", + "15888.6211 | \n", + "0.5353 | \n", + "0.5252 | \n", + "-0.7763 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.4242 | \n", + "1.3042 | \n", + "13771.5278 | \n", + "16901.5577 | \n", + "0.6506 | \n", + "0.5225 | \n", + "-0.7373 | \n", + "0.1367 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.7387 | \n", + "1.4349 | \n", + "14899.2686 | \n", + "17299.4340 | \n", + "0.5453 | \n", + "0.5884 | \n", + "-1.0299 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9821 | \n", + "1.7627 | \n", + "19078.1058 | \n", + "23853.1734 | \n", + "0.6763 | \n", + "0.7684 | \n", + "-2.9388 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9822 | \n", + "1.7627 | \n", + "19078.1073 | \n", + "23853.1750 | \n", + "0.6763 | \n", + "0.7685 | \n", + "-2.9388 | \n", + "0.4033 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.3358 | \n", + "0.3981 | \n", + "5762.5000 | \n", + "7960.9267 | \n", + "0.2025 | \n", + "0.2221 | \n", + "0.7042 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.6706 | \n", + "0.6260 | \n", + "4956.2500 | \n", + "6608.6315 | \n", + "0.1929 | \n", + "0.1730 | \n", + "0.7327 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.6153 | \n", + "0.6513 | \n", + "3856.2500 | \n", + "5831.2333 | \n", + "0.1630 | \n", + "0.1432 | \n", + "0.7262 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.5405 | \n", + "0.5585 | \n", + "4858.3333 | \n", + "6800.2638 | \n", + "0.1861 | \n", + "0.1794 | \n", + "0.7210 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.1466 | \n", + "0.1139 | \n", + "781.2972 | \n", + "879.9397 | \n", + "0.0168 | \n", + "0.0325 | \n", + "0.0122 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.5925 | \n", + "0.6244 | \n", + "300.0000 | \n", + "389.0991 | \n", + "0.3697 | \n", + "0.3004 | \n", + "0.7638 | \n", + "0.1400 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.7867 | \n", + "0.7446 | \n", + "394.9114 | \n", + "461.8484 | \n", + "0.4834 | \n", + "0.3729 | \n", + "0.6692 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7767 | \n", + "0.8706 | \n", + "397.2334 | \n", + "563.6373 | \n", + "0.3639 | \n", + "0.3005 | \n", + "0.4585 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9127 | \n", + "1.1045 | \n", + "456.8402 | \n", + "697.7635 | \n", + "0.4047 | \n", + "0.3329 | \n", + "0.2009 | \n", + "1.1033 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9778 | \n", + "1.0765 | \n", + "483.0627 | \n", + "676.9644 | \n", + "0.4365 | \n", + "0.3460 | \n", + "0.2679 | \n", + "0.6200 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9675 | \n", + "1.1264 | \n", + "490.8505 | \n", + "714.0706 | \n", + "0.4093 | \n", + "0.3699 | \n", + "0.1689 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.0266 | \n", + "1.3868 | \n", + "497.0164 | \n", + "831.4070 | \n", + "0.4211 | \n", + "0.3408 | \n", + "-0.0564 | \n", + "0.0433 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.0290 | \n", + "1.3663 | \n", + "500.1297 | \n", + "816.7226 | \n", + "0.4639 | \n", + "0.3423 | \n", + "-0.0202 | \n", + "0.0900 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0009 | \n", + "1.0508 | \n", + "500.6248 | \n", + "665.9711 | \n", + "0.4129 | \n", + "0.3807 | \n", + "0.2906 | \n", + "0.3733 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.9402 | \n", + "0.9249 | \n", + "534.3580 | \n", + "621.6311 | \n", + "0.5763 | \n", + "0.4588 | \n", + "0.2706 | \n", + "0.1533 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0965 | \n", + "1.1306 | \n", + "541.4788 | \n", + "705.7198 | \n", + "0.4732 | \n", + "0.4624 | \n", + "0.2195 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0965 | \n", + "1.1306 | \n", + "541.4792 | \n", + "705.7203 | \n", + "0.4732 | \n", + "0.4624 | \n", + "0.2195 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0775 | \n", + "1.1252 | \n", + "575.8079 | \n", + "739.5003 | \n", + "0.4351 | \n", + "0.5330 | \n", + "0.0291 | \n", + "0.4133 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.1971 | \n", + "1.3866 | \n", + "588.7880 | \n", + "832.8513 | \n", + "0.6219 | \n", + "0.3979 | \n", + "-0.0592 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0828 | \n", + "1.0587 | \n", + "588.8137 | \n", + "690.7814 | \n", + "0.5190 | \n", + "0.5156 | \n", + "0.1860 | \n", + "2.2000 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1771 | \n", + "1.1743 | \n", + "591.1004 | \n", + "730.6288 | \n", + "0.6739 | \n", + "0.4505 | \n", + "0.1446 | \n", + "0.4767 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1725 | \n", + "1.2432 | \n", + "623.3858 | \n", + "813.9553 | \n", + "0.5648 | \n", + "0.4960 | \n", + "-0.1408 | \n", + "0.3800 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.2980 | \n", + "1.5816 | \n", + "684.0278 | \n", + "992.8321 | \n", + "0.4625 | \n", + "0.6097 | \n", + "-0.5587 | \n", + "0.0700 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2421 | \n", + "1.2122 | \n", + "739.5273 | \n", + "851.8203 | \n", + "0.6546 | \n", + "0.7878 | \n", + "-0.6607 | \n", + "0.4900 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5237 | \n", + "1.4820 | \n", + "856.5387 | \n", + "994.5358 | \n", + "0.7398 | \n", + "0.8963 | \n", + "-0.8788 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "4.1758 | \n", + "4.8240 | \n", + "2812.4788 | \n", + "3740.8746 | \n", + "2.2256 | \n", + "0.9270 | \n", + "-45.6257 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "4.1761 | \n", + "4.8244 | \n", + "2812.7138 | \n", + "3741.2440 | \n", + "2.2258 | \n", + "0.9270 | \n", + "-45.6362 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.5424 | \n", + "0.6288 | \n", + "400.0000 | \n", + "516.7003 | \n", + "0.6812 | \n", + "0.4271 | \n", + "0.6338 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.5950 | \n", + "0.5994 | \n", + "266.6667 | \n", + "341.8699 | \n", + "0.2216 | \n", + "0.2787 | \n", + "0.8158 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.6403 | \n", + "0.6450 | \n", + "233.3333 | \n", + "308.7272 | \n", + "0.2063 | \n", + "0.1955 | \n", + "0.8417 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.5925 | \n", + "0.6244 | \n", + "300.0000 | \n", + "389.0991 | \n", + "0.3697 | \n", + "0.3004 | \n", + "0.7638 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.0400 | \n", + "0.0189 | \n", + "72.0082 | \n", + "91.2365 | \n", + "0.2204 | \n", + "0.0958 | \n", + "0.0925 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.6776 | \n", + "0.6767 | \n", + "606.2500 | \n", + "733.0905 | \n", + "0.4283 | \n", + "0.3493 | \n", + "0.7173 | \n", + "0.0933 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.8345 | \n", + "0.8141 | \n", + "752.4737 | \n", + "895.7769 | \n", + "0.5710 | \n", + "0.4231 | \n", + "0.5847 | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8318 | \n", + "0.8955 | \n", + "812.8607 | \n", + "1103.3306 | \n", + "0.4567 | \n", + "0.4170 | \n", + "0.3158 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9214 | \n", + "0.9089 | \n", + "895.4903 | \n", + "1097.6789 | \n", + "0.7223 | \n", + "0.4319 | \n", + "0.3562 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0555 | \n", + "1.1265 | \n", + "978.0635 | \n", + "1291.3700 | \n", + "0.7320 | \n", + "0.4602 | \n", + "0.1528 | \n", + "0.7400 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0481 | \n", + "1.0545 | \n", + "991.5928 | \n", + "1247.6801 | \n", + "0.8092 | \n", + "0.4689 | \n", + "0.1928 | \n", + "0.3600 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0718 | \n", + "1.1262 | \n", + "999.8982 | \n", + "1297.7061 | \n", + "0.7419 | \n", + "0.4699 | \n", + "0.1456 | \n", + "0.5167 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.9642 | \n", + "0.9605 | \n", + "1008.1059 | \n", + "1199.5614 | \n", + "0.6345 | \n", + "0.4584 | \n", + "0.1946 | \n", + "0.1500 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.1609 | \n", + "1.3154 | \n", + "1027.6916 | \n", + "1452.1510 | \n", + "0.7832 | \n", + "0.4935 | \n", + "-0.0747 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.1705 | \n", + "1.2962 | \n", + "1033.8245 | \n", + "1426.5648 | \n", + "0.8471 | \n", + "0.4936 | \n", + "-0.0403 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0719 | \n", + "1.0942 | \n", + "1042.7538 | \n", + "1270.5802 | \n", + "0.6652 | \n", + "0.4864 | \n", + "0.1859 | \n", + "0.4133 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1433 | \n", + "1.1479 | \n", + "1058.4885 | \n", + "1321.6353 | \n", + "0.7808 | \n", + "0.4743 | \n", + "0.1141 | \n", + "0.6267 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2572 | \n", + "1.2731 | \n", + "1161.9008 | \n", + "1436.7931 | \n", + "1.0654 | \n", + "0.5668 | \n", + "-0.0467 | \n", + "0.3400 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2193 | \n", + "1.1947 | \n", + "1201.2691 | \n", + "1445.5893 | \n", + "0.9260 | \n", + "0.5577 | \n", + "-0.1078 | \n", + "0.5533 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.3362 | \n", + "1.3694 | \n", + "1214.3946 | \n", + "1527.8553 | \n", + "1.1109 | \n", + "0.5473 | \n", + "-0.1856 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5219 | \n", + "1.5259 | \n", + "1312.0076 | \n", + "1635.6891 | \n", + "1.1615 | \n", + "0.7484 | \n", + "-0.4452 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5219 | \n", + "1.5259 | \n", + "1312.0088 | \n", + "1635.6903 | \n", + "1.1615 | \n", + "0.7484 | \n", + "-0.4452 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.5251 | \n", + "1.5682 | \n", + "1316.6513 | \n", + "1708.0354 | \n", + "0.9979 | \n", + "0.7746 | \n", + "-0.5462 | \n", + "0.3667 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.5430 | \n", + "1.5766 | \n", + "1350.0000 | \n", + "1741.3178 | \n", + "0.9788 | \n", + "0.6403 | \n", + "-0.5821 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.8171 | \n", + "1.8143 | \n", + "1633.7198 | \n", + "2032.3523 | \n", + "1.1463 | \n", + "0.6441 | \n", + "-1.2391 | \n", + "2.2733 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.0284 | \n", + "2.2419 | \n", + "2046.5654 | \n", + "2857.6880 | \n", + "1.4343 | \n", + "0.9829 | \n", + "-3.7775 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.0285 | \n", + "2.2419 | \n", + "2046.5899 | \n", + "2857.7091 | \n", + "1.4344 | \n", + "0.9829 | \n", + "-3.7776 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.4655 | \n", + "0.4637 | \n", + "675.0000 | \n", + "791.2938 | \n", + "0.5321 | \n", + "0.4107 | \n", + "0.7586 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.7159 | \n", + "0.6664 | \n", + "562.5000 | \n", + "650.4806 | \n", + "0.2687 | \n", + "0.2995 | \n", + "0.7730 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.8514 | \n", + "0.9001 | \n", + "581.2500 | \n", + "757.4972 | \n", + "0.4843 | \n", + "0.3378 | \n", + "0.6204 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.6776 | \n", + "0.6767 | \n", + "606.2500 | \n", + "733.0905 | \n", + "0.4283 | \n", + "0.3493 | \n", + "0.7173 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.1598 | \n", + "0.1783 | \n", + "49.2125 | \n", + "60.0214 | \n", + "0.1146 | \n", + "0.0461 | \n", + "0.0688 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.7112 | \n", + "0.7362 | \n", + "9627.0833 | \n", + "11069.1220 | \n", + "0.2686 | \n", + "0.3084 | \n", + "0.2236 | \n", + "0.0833 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.7690 | \n", + "0.7881 | \n", + "10601.7514 | \n", + "12264.7710 | \n", + "0.3140 | \n", + "0.2775 | \n", + "0.0091 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.9517 | \n", + "1.0611 | \n", + "12856.2500 | \n", + "16027.4617 | \n", + "0.3639 | \n", + "0.3845 | \n", + "-0.5863 | \n", + "0.0667 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.9563 | \n", + "0.9642 | \n", + "12982.9547 | \n", + "14771.9747 | \n", + "0.3641 | \n", + "0.3530 | \n", + "-0.3851 | \n", + "0.0933 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "0.9843 | \n", + "1.0828 | \n", + "13314.5220 | \n", + "16724.8469 | \n", + "0.4548 | \n", + "0.3319 | \n", + "-0.9284 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9825 | \n", + "1.0873 | \n", + "13407.1358 | \n", + "16941.4067 | \n", + "0.4189 | \n", + "0.3152 | \n", + "-1.0298 | \n", + "0.3633 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0168 | \n", + "1.0947 | \n", + "13743.3007 | \n", + "16770.8331 | \n", + "0.4069 | \n", + "0.3514 | \n", + "-0.8174 | \n", + "0.5733 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.0158 | \n", + "1.1139 | \n", + "13820.1990 | \n", + "16892.3896 | \n", + "0.3510 | \n", + "0.4212 | \n", + "-0.7617 | \n", + "0.0433 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0210 | \n", + "1.0757 | \n", + "13886.0003 | \n", + "16489.5211 | \n", + "0.4116 | \n", + "0.3600 | \n", + "-0.7353 | \n", + "0.3800 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0320 | \n", + "1.1114 | \n", + "13937.8902 | \n", + "17098.5436 | \n", + "0.4366 | \n", + "0.3570 | \n", + "-0.9192 | \n", + "0.5667 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0374 | \n", + "1.0912 | \n", + "13951.5228 | \n", + "16659.0521 | \n", + "0.4214 | \n", + "0.3542 | \n", + "-0.8405 | \n", + "0.5667 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.0205 | \n", + "1.1416 | \n", + "14013.7728 | \n", + "17476.4376 | \n", + "0.3451 | \n", + "0.4146 | \n", + "-0.8994 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0390 | \n", + "1.1230 | \n", + "14030.8346 | \n", + "17262.0666 | \n", + "0.4399 | \n", + "0.3616 | \n", + "-0.9506 | \n", + "0.4633 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0661 | \n", + "1.1638 | \n", + "14302.8221 | \n", + "17743.7571 | \n", + "0.4131 | \n", + "0.3506 | \n", + "-1.1356 | \n", + "2.2533 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0791 | \n", + "1.1226 | \n", + "14630.2587 | \n", + "17230.0994 | \n", + "0.4468 | \n", + "0.3690 | \n", + "-0.9693 | \n", + "0.6133 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1034 | \n", + "1.1798 | \n", + "14776.1504 | \n", + "18013.4665 | \n", + "0.4093 | \n", + "0.3669 | \n", + "-1.1347 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1185 | \n", + "1.1539 | \n", + "15126.2416 | \n", + "17694.5594 | \n", + "0.4428 | \n", + "0.3753 | \n", + "-1.0944 | \n", + "0.3567 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "5.4825 | \n", + "6.3308 | \n", + "85442.2114 | \n", + "111419.0383 | \n", + "2.7233 | \n", + "0.8044 | \n", + "-209.1753 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "5.4825 | \n", + "6.3308 | \n", + "85442.2378 | \n", + "111419.0773 | \n", + "2.7233 | \n", + "0.8044 | \n", + "-209.1754 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "5.5151 | \n", + "6.3617 | \n", + "85867.3519 | \n", + "111853.3865 | \n", + "2.7271 | \n", + "0.8212 | \n", + "-209.2462 | \n", + "0.4433 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "5.5508 | \n", + "6.4406 | \n", + "86319.9743 | \n", + "112941.8931 | \n", + "2.7355 | \n", + "0.8429 | \n", + "-209.0524 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "5.5508 | \n", + "6.4406 | \n", + "86320.0875 | \n", + "112942.0609 | \n", + "2.7355 | \n", + "0.8429 | \n", + "-209.0531 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "1.2824 | \n", + "1.3319 | \n", + "16718.7500 | \n", + "18750.9680 | \n", + "0.4810 | \n", + "0.5865 | \n", + "-0.4922 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.4542 | \n", + "0.4719 | \n", + "7354.1667 | \n", + "8569.0881 | \n", + "0.1885 | \n", + "0.2095 | \n", + "0.4716 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.3969 | \n", + "0.4049 | \n", + "4808.3333 | \n", + "5887.3098 | \n", + "0.1361 | \n", + "0.1294 | \n", + "0.6914 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.7112 | \n", + "0.7362 | \n", + "9627.0833 | \n", + "11069.1220 | \n", + "0.2686 | \n", + "0.3084 | \n", + "0.2236 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.4046 | \n", + "0.4221 | \n", + "5121.1404 | \n", + "5541.1222 | \n", + "0.1518 | \n", + "0.1993 | \n", + "0.5140 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.6430 | \n", + "0.8562 | \n", + "1638.4224 | \n", + "2600.3864 | \n", + "0.8868 | \n", + "0.6860 | \n", + "0.6925 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.7036 | \n", + "0.8805 | \n", + "1751.1299 | \n", + "2660.0569 | \n", + "0.7163 | \n", + "0.7026 | \n", + "0.7259 | \n", + "0.0867 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.6830 | \n", + "0.8861 | \n", + "1779.9402 | \n", + "2699.4568 | \n", + "1.1475 | \n", + "0.7427 | \n", + "0.6304 | \n", + "0.1233 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9905 | \n", + "1.2608 | \n", + "2543.7479 | \n", + "3998.9654 | \n", + "1.1706 | \n", + "1.1588 | \n", + "0.2299 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0473 | \n", + "1.4257 | \n", + "2672.2626 | \n", + "4460.9750 | \n", + "1.0013 | \n", + "1.0085 | \n", + "0.1519 | \n", + "0.6333 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0501 | \n", + "1.4120 | \n", + "2688.1314 | \n", + "4422.2175 | \n", + "1.0795 | \n", + "0.9931 | \n", + "0.1453 | \n", + "0.3700 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0514 | \n", + "1.3805 | \n", + "2691.9395 | \n", + "4335.8415 | \n", + "1.1344 | \n", + "0.9753 | \n", + "0.1608 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0898 | \n", + "1.4444 | \n", + "2781.7815 | \n", + "4522.4608 | \n", + "1.1437 | \n", + "1.0947 | \n", + "0.1192 | \n", + "2.1900 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1467 | \n", + "1.4370 | \n", + "2904.9913 | \n", + "4515.6316 | \n", + "1.2807 | \n", + "1.0524 | \n", + "0.1370 | \n", + "0.4200 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1535 | \n", + "1.4274 | \n", + "2920.4658 | \n", + "4457.3036 | \n", + "1.4313 | \n", + "1.1579 | \n", + "0.1400 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2085 | \n", + "1.2631 | \n", + "2935.0608 | \n", + "3874.8233 | \n", + "2.1274 | \n", + "1.0996 | \n", + "0.5333 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1643 | \n", + "1.5100 | \n", + "2947.1709 | \n", + "4691.9040 | \n", + "1.3436 | \n", + "1.0431 | \n", + "0.0873 | \n", + "0.6100 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2207 | \n", + "1.2850 | \n", + "2976.4089 | \n", + "3948.8251 | \n", + "2.1194 | \n", + "1.1429 | \n", + "0.5008 | \n", + "0.5267 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2171 | \n", + "1.4362 | \n", + "2992.4505 | \n", + "4475.6045 | \n", + "1.5193 | \n", + "0.9528 | \n", + "0.2293 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1949 | \n", + "1.7360 | \n", + "3014.3049 | \n", + "5300.7276 | \n", + "1.2433 | \n", + "1.0211 | \n", + "-0.0899 | \n", + "0.4567 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.3114 | \n", + "1.9555 | \n", + "3228.9738 | \n", + "6017.9310 | \n", + "1.6544 | \n", + "0.7973 | \n", + "-0.0961 | \n", + "0.0567 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2999 | \n", + "1.4615 | \n", + "3244.1375 | \n", + "4545.9498 | \n", + "1.7870 | \n", + "1.2936 | \n", + "0.1291 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3068 | \n", + "1.4661 | \n", + "3267.6848 | \n", + "4561.4029 | \n", + "1.8342 | \n", + "1.3123 | \n", + "0.1169 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.3068 | \n", + "1.4661 | \n", + "3267.6849 | \n", + "4561.4030 | \n", + "1.8342 | \n", + "1.3123 | \n", + "0.1169 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.3334 | \n", + "1.9415 | \n", + "3272.4979 | \n", + "5971.7690 | \n", + "1.6206 | \n", + "0.8095 | \n", + "-0.0877 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.3765 | \n", + "2.1236 | \n", + "3359.5734 | \n", + "6535.5250 | \n", + "0.6684 | \n", + "0.8587 | \n", + "-0.3220 | \n", + "0.0967 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.3905 | \n", + "1.9717 | \n", + "3386.8275 | \n", + "6076.0431 | \n", + "1.1015 | \n", + "0.8124 | \n", + "-0.1778 | \n", + "0.0600 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.4884 | \n", + "0.7269 | \n", + "1651.9314 | \n", + "2458.6074 | \n", + "1.5522 | \n", + "1.1498 | \n", + "0.4496 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.8625 | \n", + "1.2949 | \n", + "1951.8243 | \n", + "3538.8986 | \n", + "0.4921 | \n", + "0.5230 | \n", + "0.6852 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.5779 | \n", + "0.5470 | \n", + "1311.5114 | \n", + "1803.6531 | \n", + "0.6160 | \n", + "0.3850 | \n", + "0.9427 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.6430 | \n", + "0.8562 | \n", + "1638.4224 | \n", + "2600.3864 | \n", + "0.8868 | \n", + "0.6860 | \n", + "0.6925 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.1595 | \n", + "0.3187 | \n", + "261.5811 | \n", + "715.4696 | \n", + "0.4732 | \n", + "0.3328 | \n", + "0.2014 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.5772 | \n", + "0.6703 | \n", + "6349.1832 | \n", + "8123.9271 | \n", + "0.2121 | \n", + "0.1817 | \n", + "0.8883 | \n", + "0.1800 | \n", + "
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.6656 | \n", + "0.7585 | \n", + "7263.4916 | \n", + "9043.7303 | \n", + "0.2231 | \n", + "0.2021 | \n", + "0.8489 | \n", + "0.0733 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0539 | \n", + "1.4231 | \n", + "11255.4185 | \n", + "16541.7246 | \n", + "0.3588 | \n", + "0.2912 | \n", + "0.4550 | \n", + "0.3733 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0580 | \n", + "1.3741 | \n", + "11264.2653 | \n", + "15785.0255 | \n", + "0.3677 | \n", + "0.3023 | \n", + "0.4713 | \n", + "0.8400 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.0284 | \n", + "1.0999 | \n", + "11355.5556 | \n", + "13606.7549 | \n", + "0.2490 | \n", + "0.2973 | \n", + "0.7130 | \n", + "0.1600 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1001 | \n", + "1.3862 | \n", + "11784.6866 | \n", + "16178.9206 | \n", + "0.3810 | \n", + "0.3188 | \n", + "0.4896 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1249 | \n", + "1.3946 | \n", + "11990.5216 | \n", + "16337.0743 | \n", + "0.3995 | \n", + "0.3335 | \n", + "0.4924 | \n", + "0.4100 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1543 | \n", + "1.4654 | \n", + "12045.6958 | \n", + "16442.4618 | \n", + "0.3679 | \n", + "0.3584 | \n", + "0.3417 | \n", + "0.3800 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2345 | \n", + "1.5427 | \n", + "13061.7883 | \n", + "17775.6636 | \n", + "0.4507 | \n", + "0.3591 | \n", + "0.3471 | \n", + "1.8900 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2477 | \n", + "1.5448 | \n", + "13300.9799 | \n", + "17845.4747 | \n", + "0.3557 | \n", + "0.3498 | \n", + "0.3467 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2605 | \n", + "1.6129 | \n", + "13892.8258 | \n", + "19677.7490 | \n", + "0.5094 | \n", + "0.3467 | \n", + "0.3288 | \n", + "0.6467 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4007 | \n", + "1.7959 | \n", + "15625.8689 | \n", + "22565.3245 | \n", + "0.4985 | \n", + "0.3759 | \n", + "0.1589 | \n", + "0.6700 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.6517 | \n", + "2.1369 | \n", + "18683.7373 | \n", + "27682.7747 | \n", + "0.6017 | \n", + "0.4037 | \n", + "-0.0657 | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.8188 | \n", + "2.3509 | \n", + "20522.8950 | \n", + "30498.6720 | \n", + "0.5058 | \n", + "0.4612 | \n", + "-0.2917 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.8963 | \n", + "2.4180 | \n", + "20934.7222 | \n", + "30509.7721 | \n", + "0.5815 | \n", + "0.5135 | \n", + "-0.3582 | \n", + "0.0833 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.9945 | \n", + "2.4884 | \n", + "22637.4941 | \n", + "32519.2063 | \n", + "0.5068 | \n", + "0.5175 | \n", + "-0.4563 | \n", + "0.0600 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "58.3855 | \n", + "81.8779 | \n", + "749924.7757 | \n", + "1310601.1332 | \n", + "20.7722 | \n", + "0.6763 | \n", + "-6945.1970 | \n", + "0.5200 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "58.3855 | \n", + "81.8779 | \n", + "749924.8063 | \n", + "1310601.1907 | \n", + "20.7722 | \n", + "0.6763 | \n", + "-6945.1976 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "58.7115 | \n", + "82.3671 | \n", + "753121.8199 | \n", + "1315602.9084 | \n", + "20.8553 | \n", + "0.7581 | \n", + "-6950.8284 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "58.7115 | \n", + "82.3671 | \n", + "753122.0288 | \n", + "1315603.3009 | \n", + "20.8553 | \n", + "0.7581 | \n", + "-6950.8326 | \n", + "0.3867 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "58.8179 | \n", + "82.5012 | \n", + "754143.2610 | \n", + "1316918.7148 | \n", + "20.8595 | \n", + "0.7988 | \n", + "-6950.9077 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.5921 | \n", + "0.5571 | \n", + "7618.8991 | \n", + "8939.0526 | \n", + "0.3239 | \n", + "0.2237 | \n", + "0.8909 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.4624 | \n", + "0.4293 | \n", + "5395.0378 | \n", + "6140.8705 | \n", + "0.1764 | \n", + "0.1438 | \n", + "0.9578 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "nan | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.4090 | \n", + "0.3899 | \n", + "8277.7899 | \n", + "10129.5134 | \n", + "0.1279 | \n", + "0.1258 | \n", + "0.8815 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.4939 | \n", + "0.4706 | \n", + "10505.0102 | \n", + "12827.9156 | \n", + "0.1563 | \n", + "0.1741 | \n", + "0.7736 | \n", + "0.1000 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.6920 | \n", + "0.7583 | \n", + "14558.3658 | \n", + "20299.7568 | \n", + "0.2126 | \n", + "0.2050 | \n", + "0.4731 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.6920 | \n", + "0.7583 | \n", + "14558.3658 | \n", + "20299.7568 | \n", + "0.2126 | \n", + "0.2050 | \n", + "0.4731 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.6964 | \n", + "0.7404 | \n", + "14634.5804 | \n", + "19984.8317 | \n", + "0.2317 | \n", + "0.2132 | \n", + "0.4800 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7129 | \n", + "0.7487 | \n", + "15597.0418 | \n", + "20781.5943 | \n", + "0.2168 | \n", + "0.2400 | \n", + "0.3325 | \n", + "0.4533 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7587 | \n", + "0.8620 | \n", + "15983.5419 | \n", + "22990.7167 | \n", + "0.2603 | \n", + "0.2313 | \n", + "0.3567 | \n", + "0.3767 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.8412 | \n", + "0.7575 | \n", + "16413.0556 | \n", + "18996.1545 | \n", + "0.2154 | \n", + "0.2540 | \n", + "0.6274 | \n", + "0.0900 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7994 | \n", + "0.9084 | \n", + "16504.6179 | \n", + "23915.0232 | \n", + "0.2681 | \n", + "0.2289 | \n", + "0.3335 | \n", + "0.6233 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7632 | \n", + "0.8172 | \n", + "16519.3435 | \n", + "22364.1166 | \n", + "0.2215 | \n", + "0.2478 | \n", + "0.2964 | \n", + "0.3267 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7568 | \n", + "0.7748 | \n", + "17076.9496 | \n", + "21928.9574 | \n", + "0.2671 | \n", + "0.2729 | \n", + "0.1911 | \n", + "0.4167 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8448 | \n", + "1.0002 | \n", + "17318.1927 | \n", + "26091.2101 | \n", + "0.2664 | \n", + "0.2365 | \n", + "0.2098 | \n", + "0.6167 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8519 | \n", + "1.0008 | \n", + "17538.9055 | \n", + "26155.1849 | \n", + "0.2695 | \n", + "0.2418 | \n", + "0.2035 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9094 | \n", + "1.0239 | \n", + "19473.9280 | \n", + "27632.0119 | \n", + "0.2940 | \n", + "0.2786 | \n", + "0.0303 | \n", + "0.4167 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0320 | \n", + "1.1959 | \n", + "21151.3004 | \n", + "30780.2451 | \n", + "0.3881 | \n", + "0.2892 | \n", + "-0.0965 | \n", + "2.2867 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.1066 | \n", + "1.3414 | \n", + "21296.8618 | \n", + "32751.9711 | \n", + "0.3324 | \n", + "0.2646 | \n", + "-0.0359 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.3391 | \n", + "1.5248 | \n", + "27722.7778 | \n", + "39079.2901 | \n", + "0.3668 | \n", + "0.4263 | \n", + "-0.6464 | \n", + "0.0833 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.4788 | \n", + "1.6464 | \n", + "28903.7975 | \n", + "40642.9561 | \n", + "0.3347 | \n", + "0.3985 | \n", + "-0.6196 | \n", + "0.0567 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.6318 | \n", + "1.7527 | \n", + "30872.9565 | \n", + "42292.9966 | \n", + "0.3477 | \n", + "0.4172 | \n", + "-0.7097 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.6619 | \n", + "1.8922 | \n", + "41243.4412 | \n", + "60057.7186 | \n", + "0.5611 | \n", + "0.5455 | \n", + "-8.6136 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.6619 | \n", + "1.8922 | \n", + "41243.4418 | \n", + "60057.7199 | \n", + "0.5611 | \n", + "0.5455 | \n", + "-8.6136 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "77182902475.0370 | \n", + "188056772441.1738 | \n", + "2123494604338965.0000 | \n", + "6593948834022640.0000 | \n", + "28646509897.5072 | \n", + "0.7741 | \n", + "-164923094633919776030720.0000 | \n", + "0.5200 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.3820 | \n", + "0.3907 | \n", + "10509.3072 | \n", + "13698.3684 | \n", + "0.1957 | \n", + "0.1943 | \n", + "0.7627 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.3235 | \n", + "0.2846 | \n", + "5974.5484 | \n", + "6785.9405 | \n", + "0.0899 | \n", + "0.0843 | \n", + "0.9549 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.5215 | \n", + "0.4945 | \n", + "8349.5141 | \n", + "9904.2313 | \n", + "0.0980 | \n", + "0.0988 | \n", + "0.9267 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.4090 | \n", + "0.3899 | \n", + "8277.7899 | \n", + "10129.5134 | \n", + "0.1279 | \n", + "0.1258 | \n", + "0.8815 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.0831 | \n", + "0.0857 | \n", + "1852.0021 | \n", + "2826.4794 | \n", + "0.0481 | \n", + "0.0488 | \n", + "0.0847 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.4343 | \n", + "0.4368 | \n", + "5002.3555 | \n", + "6326.9491 | \n", + "0.1667 | \n", + "0.1495 | \n", + "0.9102 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.6160 | \n", + "0.5776 | \n", + "7233.4007 | \n", + "8513.7369 | \n", + "0.2079 | \n", + "0.2133 | \n", + "0.8144 | \n", + "0.1000 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "0.7245 | \n", + "0.7076 | \n", + "8457.6389 | \n", + "10264.1441 | \n", + "0.2062 | \n", + "0.2428 | \n", + "0.7631 | \n", + "0.0900 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8323 | \n", + "0.9177 | \n", + "9701.3409 | \n", + "13511.9884 | \n", + "0.3112 | \n", + "0.2502 | \n", + "0.5459 | \n", + "0.5333 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8753 | \n", + "0.9282 | \n", + "10218.3323 | \n", + "13711.8326 | \n", + "0.3475 | \n", + "0.2849 | \n", + "0.4875 | \n", + "0.5700 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8908 | \n", + "0.9400 | \n", + "10443.8511 | \n", + "13997.0672 | \n", + "0.3517 | \n", + "0.2909 | \n", + "0.4209 | \n", + "2.2433 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8853 | \n", + "0.8979 | \n", + "10489.1708 | \n", + "13480.0801 | \n", + "0.3071 | \n", + "0.3008 | \n", + "0.4322 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8908 | \n", + "0.9316 | \n", + "10505.7083 | \n", + "13909.1225 | \n", + "0.3469 | \n", + "0.2922 | \n", + "0.4566 | \n", + "0.3533 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9013 | \n", + "0.9546 | \n", + "10521.7146 | \n", + "14088.7895 | \n", + "0.3124 | \n", + "0.2784 | \n", + "0.4830 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9013 | \n", + "0.9546 | \n", + "10521.7146 | \n", + "14088.7894 | \n", + "0.3124 | \n", + "0.2784 | \n", + "0.4830 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9063 | \n", + "0.9651 | \n", + "10756.9360 | \n", + "14487.7065 | \n", + "0.3551 | \n", + "0.3117 | \n", + "0.3822 | \n", + "0.3833 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9661 | \n", + "1.0303 | \n", + "11276.4947 | \n", + "15203.5867 | \n", + "0.3759 | \n", + "0.3054 | \n", + "0.4337 | \n", + "0.3833 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9611 | \n", + "1.0009 | \n", + "11342.7214 | \n", + "14886.6242 | \n", + "0.3117 | \n", + "0.3132 | \n", + "0.3925 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0315 | \n", + "1.1361 | \n", + "11974.0033 | \n", + "16657.8078 | \n", + "0.4435 | \n", + "0.3170 | \n", + "0.3524 | \n", + "0.6200 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0251 | \n", + "1.0314 | \n", + "12263.1356 | \n", + "15478.4680 | \n", + "0.4366 | \n", + "0.3610 | \n", + "0.3101 | \n", + "0.4100 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1420 | \n", + "1.2653 | \n", + "13234.2341 | \n", + "18471.4250 | \n", + "0.4443 | \n", + "0.3390 | \n", + "0.2071 | \n", + "0.8067 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.4414 | \n", + "1.6416 | \n", + "15995.5514 | \n", + "22843.7609 | \n", + "0.5385 | \n", + "0.3696 | \n", + "-0.0300 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.5995 | \n", + "1.8656 | \n", + "18133.4529 | \n", + "26244.5867 | \n", + "0.4295 | \n", + "0.4607 | \n", + "-0.3843 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.6158 | \n", + "1.7826 | \n", + "18474.3056 | \n", + "25352.2804 | \n", + "0.5194 | \n", + "0.4878 | \n", + "-0.3398 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4935 | \n", + "1.7069 | \n", + "18642.9974 | \n", + "27064.0806 | \n", + "0.5122 | \n", + "0.5269 | \n", + "-2.1451 | \n", + "0.3300 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4935 | \n", + "1.7069 | \n", + "18642.9975 | \n", + "27064.0805 | \n", + "0.5122 | \n", + "0.5269 | \n", + "-2.1451 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.6882 | \n", + "1.9389 | \n", + "18852.4970 | \n", + "26973.5120 | \n", + "0.4269 | \n", + "0.4697 | \n", + "-0.4357 | \n", + "0.0567 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.4299 | \n", + "0.4771 | \n", + "5895.5410 | \n", + "8228.7791 | \n", + "0.2090 | \n", + "0.1976 | \n", + "0.8347 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.4070 | \n", + "0.3896 | \n", + "4580.9008 | \n", + "5444.9940 | \n", + "0.1794 | \n", + "0.1470 | \n", + "0.9425 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.4658 | \n", + "0.4436 | \n", + "4530.6247 | \n", + "5307.0743 | \n", + "0.1119 | \n", + "0.1041 | \n", + "0.9534 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.4343 | \n", + "0.4368 | \n", + "5002.3555 | \n", + "6326.9491 | \n", + "0.1667 | \n", + "0.1495 | \n", + "0.9102 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.0242 | \n", + "0.0361 | \n", + "631.9110 | \n", + "1345.9751 | \n", + "0.0406 | \n", + "0.0382 | \n", + "0.0536 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "1.2911 | \n", + "1.3905 | \n", + "1039.8154 | \n", + "1354.9309 | \n", + "0.4528 | \n", + "0.3864 | \n", + "0.8464 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "1.3228 | \n", + "1.4043 | \n", + "1058.2768 | \n", + "1356.5587 | \n", + "0.4633 | \n", + "0.4275 | \n", + "0.8485 | \n", + "0.1167 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.4140 | \n", + "1.4359 | \n", + "1101.0150 | \n", + "1344.2848 | \n", + "0.4392 | \n", + "0.4777 | \n", + "0.8542 | \n", + "0.0867 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.8709 | \n", + "2.4788 | \n", + "1522.4081 | \n", + "2269.2708 | \n", + "0.5270 | \n", + "0.4643 | \n", + "0.4324 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.9225 | \n", + "2.4660 | \n", + "1568.9657 | \n", + "2245.2602 | \n", + "0.5406 | \n", + "0.5252 | \n", + "0.4074 | \n", + "0.3600 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.0728 | \n", + "2.6394 | \n", + "1694.7402 | \n", + "2411.1723 | \n", + "0.5548 | \n", + "0.5330 | \n", + "0.3563 | \n", + "0.5700 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.1563 | \n", + "2.4064 | \n", + "1799.4771 | \n", + "2290.2380 | \n", + "0.8086 | \n", + "0.5446 | \n", + "0.4760 | \n", + "0.5200 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.2548 | \n", + "2.9654 | \n", + "1804.9391 | \n", + "2663.7064 | \n", + "0.5422 | \n", + "0.5842 | \n", + "0.2707 | \n", + "0.3700 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.3798 | \n", + "3.0311 | \n", + "1893.5149 | \n", + "2735.2395 | \n", + "0.6027 | \n", + "0.5602 | \n", + "0.2740 | \n", + "0.5900 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.3005 | \n", + "2.8281 | \n", + "1965.0943 | \n", + "2764.3231 | \n", + "0.7099 | \n", + "0.6183 | \n", + "0.2222 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "2.5317 | \n", + "3.9800 | \n", + "2001.8418 | \n", + "3702.2141 | \n", + "0.5617 | \n", + "0.4824 | \n", + "-0.1013 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.5285 | \n", + "3.1345 | \n", + "2012.3032 | \n", + "2842.1088 | \n", + "0.7515 | \n", + "0.5864 | \n", + "0.2353 | \n", + "0.3600 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.6110 | \n", + "3.5944 | \n", + "2016.4525 | \n", + "3153.6902 | \n", + "0.6082 | \n", + "0.5607 | \n", + "0.0963 | \n", + "0.5967 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.3762 | \n", + "2.8966 | \n", + "2028.4252 | \n", + "2822.0225 | \n", + "0.7125 | \n", + "0.6601 | \n", + "0.1783 | \n", + "0.3233 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.3762 | \n", + "2.8966 | \n", + "2028.4265 | \n", + "2822.0241 | \n", + "0.7125 | \n", + "0.6601 | \n", + "0.1783 | \n", + "0.3100 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "2.5876 | \n", + "3.9775 | \n", + "2056.1958 | \n", + "3688.8751 | \n", + "0.5848 | \n", + "0.5009 | \n", + "-0.0975 | \n", + "0.0500 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.5552 | \n", + "3.2079 | \n", + "2071.9866 | \n", + "2952.5431 | \n", + "0.6799 | \n", + "0.6405 | \n", + "0.1738 | \n", + "0.3933 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.7936 | \n", + "3.6705 | \n", + "2220.2844 | \n", + "3353.4162 | \n", + "0.7239 | \n", + "0.6300 | \n", + "0.0252 | \n", + "2.2067 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "2.8449 | \n", + "4.2472 | \n", + "2253.4722 | \n", + "3910.8391 | \n", + "0.5396 | \n", + "0.6026 | \n", + "-0.2480 | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.8298 | \n", + "3.7528 | \n", + "2408.3275 | \n", + "3542.9978 | \n", + "0.8087 | \n", + "0.7672 | \n", + "-0.5482 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "2.8298 | \n", + "3.7528 | \n", + "2408.3366 | \n", + "3543.0077 | \n", + "0.8087 | \n", + "0.7672 | \n", + "-0.5482 | \n", + "0.3100 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "3.1671 | \n", + "3.8114 | \n", + "2549.5770 | \n", + "3565.9703 | \n", + "1.0102 | \n", + "0.6284 | \n", + "-0.0233 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.7308 | \n", + "0.9348 | \n", + "612.0175 | \n", + "787.1158 | \n", + "0.2791 | \n", + "0.3822 | \n", + "0.9346 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "1.7627 | \n", + "1.9778 | \n", + "1123.4147 | \n", + "1554.3175 | \n", + "0.4495 | \n", + "0.3454 | \n", + "0.8435 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "1.3375 | \n", + "1.3057 | \n", + "1348.9273 | \n", + "1739.9449 | \n", + "0.5594 | \n", + "0.3677 | \n", + "0.7622 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "1.2770 | \n", + "1.4061 | \n", + "1028.1198 | \n", + "1360.4594 | \n", + "0.4293 | \n", + "0.3651 | \n", + "0.8468 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.4235 | \n", + "0.4317 | \n", + "308.2962 | \n", + "412.4371 | \n", + "0.1153 | \n", + "0.0151 | \n", + "0.0704 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.8055 | \n", + "0.9416 | \n", + "870.3184 | \n", + "1233.2352 | \n", + "0.2685 | \n", + "0.2440 | \n", + "0.8230 | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "0.9216 | \n", + "0.9993 | \n", + "1004.4217 | \n", + "1316.2684 | \n", + "0.3565 | \n", + "0.2984 | \n", + "0.8032 | \n", + "0.1133 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0163 | \n", + "1.3702 | \n", + "1108.1572 | \n", + "1732.3998 | \n", + "0.3370 | \n", + "0.3046 | \n", + "0.5106 | \n", + "0.4133 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0369 | \n", + "1.4698 | \n", + "1140.9749 | \n", + "1882.2779 | \n", + "0.3287 | \n", + "0.2931 | \n", + "0.4836 | \n", + "0.5700 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1018 | \n", + "1.4632 | \n", + "1187.5173 | \n", + "1855.0746 | \n", + "0.3626 | \n", + "0.3199 | \n", + "0.4770 | \n", + "0.3567 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1094 | \n", + "1.5101 | \n", + "1216.8909 | \n", + "1939.8500 | \n", + "0.3655 | \n", + "0.3172 | \n", + "0.4704 | \n", + "0.6133 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1953 | \n", + "1.6350 | \n", + "1285.0153 | \n", + "2089.8454 | \n", + "0.3700 | \n", + "0.3206 | \n", + "0.3936 | \n", + "0.6000 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.1991 | \n", + "1.6175 | \n", + "1295.0423 | \n", + "2078.9931 | \n", + "0.3876 | \n", + "0.3862 | \n", + "0.4155 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2494 | \n", + "1.6702 | \n", + "1342.4562 | \n", + "2145.7814 | \n", + "0.3789 | \n", + "0.3971 | \n", + "0.3820 | \n", + "0.3100 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2569 | \n", + "1.9362 | \n", + "1348.2339 | \n", + "2487.4367 | \n", + "0.3547 | \n", + "0.3216 | \n", + "0.1661 | \n", + "0.4500 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.3902 | \n", + "1.4218 | \n", + "1493.0556 | \n", + "1873.8817 | \n", + "0.3832 | \n", + "0.4822 | \n", + "0.6012 | \n", + "0.0900 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4027 | \n", + "1.7773 | \n", + "1503.7257 | \n", + "2288.9890 | \n", + "0.4309 | \n", + "0.4392 | \n", + "0.3175 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4066 | \n", + "1.7698 | \n", + "1508.1777 | \n", + "2280.4638 | \n", + "0.4434 | \n", + "0.4409 | \n", + "0.3254 | \n", + "0.4100 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4066 | \n", + "1.7698 | \n", + "1508.1798 | \n", + "2280.4652 | \n", + "0.4434 | \n", + "0.4409 | \n", + "0.3254 | \n", + "0.3100 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4827 | \n", + "1.9181 | \n", + "1537.2836 | \n", + "2437.4287 | \n", + "0.5014 | \n", + "0.3720 | \n", + "0.0668 | \n", + "2.0467 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4612 | \n", + "1.7467 | \n", + "1562.9078 | \n", + "2252.3696 | \n", + "0.5311 | \n", + "0.4697 | \n", + "0.3472 | \n", + "0.3367 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "1.5094 | \n", + "2.2778 | \n", + "1642.3534 | \n", + "2990.0409 | \n", + "0.4886 | \n", + "0.3857 | \n", + "-0.0311 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.7635 | \n", + "2.5840 | \n", + "1883.3333 | \n", + "3381.3849 | \n", + "0.3903 | \n", + "0.4755 | \n", + "-0.3539 | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.7652 | \n", + "2.4373 | \n", + "1914.3832 | \n", + "3039.3187 | \n", + "0.5632 | \n", + "0.6114 | \n", + "-0.7347 | \n", + "0.3133 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.7855 | \n", + "2.4808 | \n", + "1937.2247 | \n", + "3088.8848 | \n", + "0.5699 | \n", + "0.6223 | \n", + "-0.8279 | \n", + "0.4667 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.8395 | \n", + "2.6417 | \n", + "1983.2003 | \n", + "3464.2553 | \n", + "0.3942 | \n", + "0.4995 | \n", + "-0.3979 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "2.0616 | \n", + "2.7708 | \n", + "2231.3376 | \n", + "3656.1613 | \n", + "0.4431 | \n", + "0.5684 | \n", + "-0.5163 | \n", + "0.0533 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.5401 | \n", + "0.8963 | \n", + "607.6292 | \n", + "1020.4230 | \n", + "0.3552 | \n", + "0.2594 | \n", + "0.7905 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.8566 | \n", + "0.7269 | \n", + "792.3153 | \n", + "931.1857 | \n", + "0.2193 | \n", + "0.2545 | \n", + "0.8664 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "1.0198 | \n", + "1.2017 | \n", + "1211.0108 | \n", + "1748.0969 | \n", + "0.2311 | \n", + "0.2182 | \n", + "0.8120 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.8055 | \n", + "0.9416 | \n", + "870.3184 | \n", + "1233.2352 | \n", + "0.2685 | \n", + "0.2440 | \n", + "0.8230 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.1991 | \n", + "0.1965 | \n", + "252.4291 | \n", + "365.8805 | \n", + "0.0615 | \n", + "0.0184 | \n", + "0.0319 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Model | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "TT (Sec) | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stlf | \n", + "STLF | \n", + "0.6652 | \n", + "0.7535 | \n", + "1535.3322 | \n", + "2026.5477 | \n", + "0.1953 | \n", + "0.2128 | \n", + "0.2973 | \n", + "0.0767 | \n", + "
| et_cds_dt | \n", + "Extra Trees w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7439 | \n", + "0.8804 | \n", + "1682.2231 | \n", + "2292.1061 | \n", + "0.1987 | \n", + "0.2192 | \n", + "0.0189 | \n", + "0.5600 | \n", + "
| ada_cds_dt | \n", + "AdaBoost w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.7288 | \n", + "0.8742 | \n", + "1710.9693 | \n", + "2346.6725 | \n", + "0.2007 | \n", + "0.2084 | \n", + "0.0095 | \n", + "0.5800 | \n", + "
| rf_cds_dt | \n", + "Random Forest w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8100 | \n", + "0.9305 | \n", + "1870.4264 | \n", + "2449.0012 | \n", + "0.2147 | \n", + "0.2371 | \n", + "-0.1130 | \n", + "0.5967 | \n", + "
| gbr_cds_dt | \n", + "Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8217 | \n", + "0.9798 | \n", + "1890.1959 | \n", + "2594.1083 | \n", + "0.2212 | \n", + "0.2457 | \n", + "-0.2103 | \n", + "0.3633 | \n", + "
| dt_cds_dt | \n", + "Decision Tree w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8056 | \n", + "0.9250 | \n", + "1895.9112 | \n", + "2478.9306 | \n", + "0.2241 | \n", + "0.2472 | \n", + "-0.1210 | \n", + "2.1067 | \n", + "
| polytrend | \n", + "Polynomial Trend Forecaster | \n", + "0.7591 | \n", + "0.8594 | \n", + "1919.4022 | \n", + "2413.8489 | \n", + "0.2279 | \n", + "0.2049 | \n", + "0.0242 | \n", + "0.0867 | \n", + "
| br_cds_dt | \n", + "Bayesian Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8576 | \n", + "0.9896 | \n", + "1978.0184 | \n", + "2613.6093 | \n", + "0.2302 | \n", + "0.2543 | \n", + "-0.2332 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| omp_cds_dt | \n", + "Orthogonal Matching Pursuit w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9156 | \n", + "1.0485 | \n", + "1993.5645 | \n", + "2658.2086 | \n", + "0.2380 | \n", + "0.2929 | \n", + "-0.4380 | \n", + "0.3200 | \n", + "
| xgboost_cds_dt | \n", + "Extreme Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.8650 | \n", + "0.9945 | \n", + "2002.9026 | \n", + "2607.8889 | \n", + "0.2261 | \n", + "0.2583 | \n", + "-0.2433 | \n", + "0.4500 | \n", + "
| lightgbm_cds_dt | \n", + "Light Gradient Boosting w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9317 | \n", + "1.0234 | \n", + "2238.4299 | \n", + "2763.5428 | \n", + "0.2433 | \n", + "0.2643 | \n", + "-0.3196 | \n", + "0.4933 | \n", + "
| huber_cds_dt | \n", + "Huber w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "0.9525 | \n", + "1.0690 | \n", + "2485.0516 | \n", + "3108.9737 | \n", + "0.2832 | \n", + "0.2783 | \n", + "-1.5161 | \n", + "0.3400 | \n", + "
| ridge_cds_dt | \n", + "Ridge w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0995 | \n", + "1.2413 | \n", + "2677.9543 | \n", + "3426.4611 | \n", + "0.3018 | \n", + "0.3323 | \n", + "-1.3660 | \n", + "0.3900 | \n", + "
| lr_cds_dt | \n", + "Linear w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.0995 | \n", + "1.2413 | \n", + "2677.9546 | \n", + "3426.4615 | \n", + "0.3018 | \n", + "0.3323 | \n", + "-1.3660 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| llar_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso Least Angular Regressor w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.2398 | \n", + "1.3676 | \n", + "2935.7802 | \n", + "3691.4309 | \n", + "0.3309 | \n", + "0.3895 | \n", + "-1.7309 | \n", + "0.3167 | \n", + "
| naive | \n", + "Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.4265 | \n", + "1.4906 | \n", + "3272.2222 | \n", + "3916.0408 | \n", + "0.3569 | \n", + "0.4844 | \n", + "-1.8130 | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "
| en_cds_dt | \n", + "Elastic Net w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4262 | \n", + "1.7289 | \n", + "3278.1354 | \n", + "4449.4330 | \n", + "0.3659 | \n", + "0.4733 | \n", + "-3.1929 | \n", + "0.3433 | \n", + "
| lasso_cds_dt | \n", + "Lasso w/ Cond. Deseasonalize & Detrending | \n", + "1.4262 | \n", + "1.7289 | \n", + "3278.1385 | \n", + "4449.4386 | \n", + "0.3659 | \n", + "0.4733 | \n", + "-3.1929 | \n", + "0.4667 | \n", + "
| snaive | \n", + "Seasonal Naive Forecaster | \n", + "1.3296 | \n", + "1.2833 | \n", + "3321.5278 | \n", + "3591.6965 | \n", + "0.3617 | \n", + "0.4655 | \n", + "-1.2525 | \n", + "0.1433 | \n", + "
| croston | \n", + "Croston | \n", + "1.6959 | \n", + "1.7168 | \n", + "4236.8547 | \n", + "4795.5133 | \n", + "0.4138 | \n", + "0.5456 | \n", + "-2.9836 | \n", + "0.0467 | \n", + "
| arima | \n", + "ARIMA | \n", + "2.2983 | \n", + "2.3279 | \n", + "4539.8434 | \n", + "5342.4761 | \n", + "0.6521 | \n", + "0.7425 | \n", + "-8.4040 | \n", + "0.1833 | \n", + "
| grand_means | \n", + "Grand Means Forecaster | \n", + "1.9370 | \n", + "1.9423 | \n", + "5048.9127 | \n", + "5622.6979 | \n", + "0.4667 | \n", + "0.6352 | \n", + "-4.3996 | \n", + "0.0567 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | cutoff | \n", + "MASE | \n", + "RMSSE | \n", + "MAE | \n", + "RMSE | \n", + "MAPE | \n", + "SMAPE | \n", + "R2 | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2021-05 | \n", + "0.5889 | \n", + "0.6675 | \n", + "1082.0898 | \n", + "1400.4973 | \n", + "0.1947 | \n", + "0.1766 | \n", + "0.6474 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2022-05 | \n", + "0.4076 | \n", + "0.4491 | \n", + "1177.5889 | \n", + "1444.4696 | \n", + "0.1293 | \n", + "0.1255 | \n", + "0.4949 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2023-05 | \n", + "0.4336 | \n", + "0.5428 | \n", + "1322.9194 | \n", + "1835.1706 | \n", + "0.1273 | \n", + "0.1132 | \n", + "0.6251 | \n", + "
| Mean | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.4767 | \n", + "0.5531 | \n", + "1194.1994 | \n", + "1560.0459 | \n", + "0.1504 | \n", + "0.1384 | \n", + "0.5891 | \n", + "
| SD | \n", + "NaT | \n", + "0.0800 | \n", + "0.0895 | \n", + "99.0174 | \n", + "195.3691 | \n", + "0.0313 | \n", + "0.0275 | \n", + "0.0672 | \n", + "
| \n", + " | Months | \n", + "Items | \n", + "Type | \n", + "Sales | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2025-06 | \n", + "B10003-2.5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "3980.0000 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2025-07 | \n", + "B10003-2.5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "4710.0000 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2025-08 | \n", + "B10003-2.5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "5040.0000 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "2025-09 | \n", + "B10003-2.5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "5070.0000 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "2025-10 | \n", + "B10003-2.5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "4300.0000 | \n", + "
| ... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "
| 175 | \n", + "2026-01 | \n", + "B8015-5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "18750.8132 | \n", + "
| 176 | \n", + "2026-02 | \n", + "B8015-5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "23174.1316 | \n", + "
| 177 | \n", + "2026-03 | \n", + "B8015-5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "20792.4010 | \n", + "
| 178 | \n", + "2026-04 | \n", + "B8015-5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "20196.2155 | \n", + "
| 179 | \n", + "2026-05 | \n", + "B8015-5 | \n", + "Forecast | \n", + "21788.2530 | \n", + "
180 rows × 4 columns
\n", + "| \n", + " | Datetime | \n", + "PJME_MW | \n", + "
|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2002-12-31 01:00:00 | \n", + "26498.0 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2002-12-31 02:00:00 | \n", + "25147.0 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2002-12-31 03:00:00 | \n", + "24574.0 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "2002-12-31 04:00:00 | \n", + "24393.0 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "2002-12-31 05:00:00 | \n", + "24860.0 | \n", + "
| ... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "
| 145361 | \n", + "2018-01-01 20:00:00 | \n", + "44284.0 | \n", + "
| 145362 | \n", + "2018-01-01 21:00:00 | \n", + "43751.0 | \n", + "
| 145363 | \n", + "2018-01-01 22:00:00 | \n", + "42402.0 | \n", + "
| 145364 | \n", + "2018-01-01 23:00:00 | \n", + "40164.0 | \n", + "
| 145365 | \n", + "2018-01-02 00:00:00 | \n", + "38608.0 | \n", + "
145366 rows × 2 columns
\n", + "XGBRegressor(base_score=None, booster=None, callbacks=None,\n", + " colsample_bylevel=None, colsample_bynode=None,\n", + " colsample_bytree=None, device=None, early_stopping_rounds=None,\n", + " enable_categorical=False, eval_metric=None, feature_types=None,\n", + " feature_weights=None, gamma=None, grow_policy=None,\n", + " importance_type=None, interaction_constraints=None,\n", + " learning_rate=0.1, max_bin=None, max_cat_threshold=None,\n", + " max_cat_to_onehot=None, max_delta_step=None, max_depth=3,\n", + " max_leaves=None, min_child_weight=None, missing=nan,\n", + " monotone_constraints=None, multi_strategy=None, n_estimators=None,\n", + " n_jobs=None, num_parallel_tree=None, ...)In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
XGBRegressor(base_score=None, booster=None, callbacks=None,\n", + " colsample_bylevel=None, colsample_bynode=None,\n", + " colsample_bytree=None, device=None, early_stopping_rounds=None,\n", + " enable_categorical=False, eval_metric=None, feature_types=None,\n", + " feature_weights=None, gamma=None, grow_policy=None,\n", + " importance_type=None, interaction_constraints=None,\n", + " learning_rate=0.1, max_bin=None, max_cat_threshold=None,\n", + " max_cat_to_onehot=None, max_delta_step=None, max_depth=3,\n", + " max_leaves=None, min_child_weight=None, missing=nan,\n", + " monotone_constraints=None, multi_strategy=None, n_estimators=None,\n", + " n_jobs=None, num_parallel_tree=None, ...)
| \n", + " | Datetime | \n", + "PJME_MW | \n", + "
|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", + "2002-12-31 01:00:00 | \n", + "26498.0 | \n", + "
| 1 | \n", + "2002-12-31 02:00:00 | \n", + "25147.0 | \n", + "
| 2 | \n", + "2002-12-31 03:00:00 | \n", + "24574.0 | \n", + "
| 3 | \n", + "2002-12-31 04:00:00 | \n", + "24393.0 | \n", + "
| 4 | \n", + "2002-12-31 05:00:00 | \n", + "24860.0 | \n", + "
| ... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "
| 145361 | \n", + "2018-01-01 20:00:00 | \n", + "44284.0 | \n", + "
| 145362 | \n", + "2018-01-01 21:00:00 | \n", + "43751.0 | \n", + "
| 145363 | \n", + "2018-01-01 22:00:00 | \n", + "42402.0 | \n", + "
| 145364 | \n", + "2018-01-01 23:00:00 | \n", + "40164.0 | \n", + "
| 145365 | \n", + "2018-01-02 00:00:00 | \n", + "38608.0 | \n", + "
145366 rows × 2 columns
\n", + "XGBRegressor(base_score=0.5, booster='gbtree', callbacks=None,\n", + " colsample_bylevel=None, colsample_bynode=None,\n", + " colsample_bytree=None, device=None, early_stopping_rounds=50,\n", + " enable_categorical=False, eval_metric=None, feature_types=None,\n", + " feature_weights=None, gamma=None, grow_policy=None,\n", + " importance_type=None, interaction_constraints=None,\n", + " learning_rate=0.01, max_bin=None, max_cat_threshold=None,\n", + " max_cat_to_onehot=None, max_delta_step=None, max_depth=3,\n", + " max_leaves=None, min_child_weight=None, missing=nan,\n", + " monotone_constraints=None, multi_strategy=None, n_estimators=1000,\n", + " n_jobs=None, num_parallel_tree=None, ...)In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
XGBRegressor(base_score=0.5, booster='gbtree', callbacks=None,\n", + " colsample_bylevel=None, colsample_bynode=None,\n", + " colsample_bytree=None, device=None, early_stopping_rounds=50,\n", + " enable_categorical=False, eval_metric=None, feature_types=None,\n", + " feature_weights=None, gamma=None, grow_policy=None,\n", + " importance_type=None, interaction_constraints=None,\n", + " learning_rate=0.01, max_bin=None, max_cat_threshold=None,\n", + " max_cat_to_onehot=None, max_delta_step=None, max_depth=3,\n", + " max_leaves=None, min_child_weight=None, missing=nan,\n", + " monotone_constraints=None, multi_strategy=None, n_estimators=1000,\n", + " n_jobs=None, num_parallel_tree=None, ...)
| \n", + " | PJME_MW | \n", + "hour | \n", + "dayofweek | \n", + "quarter | \n", + "month | \n", + "year | \n", + "dayofyear | \n", + "dayofmonth | \n", + "weekofyear | \n", + "prediction | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datetime | \n", + "\n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " | \n", + " |
| 2002-12-31 01:00:00 | \n", + "26498.0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "12 | \n", + "2002 | \n", + "365 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 2002-12-31 02:00:00 | \n", + "25147.0 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "12 | \n", + "2002 | \n", + "365 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 2002-12-31 03:00:00 | \n", + "24574.0 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "12 | \n", + "2002 | \n", + "365 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 2002-12-31 04:00:00 | \n", + "24393.0 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "12 | \n", + "2002 | \n", + "365 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| 2002-12-31 05:00:00 | \n", + "24860.0 | \n", + "5 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "12 | \n", + "2002 | \n", + "365 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "
| ... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "
| 2018-01-01 20:00:00 | \n", + "44284.0 | \n", + "20 | \n", + "0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "37180.476562 | \n", + "
| 2018-01-01 21:00:00 | \n", + "43751.0 | \n", + "21 | \n", + "0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "37165.738281 | \n", + "
| 2018-01-01 22:00:00 | \n", + "42402.0 | \n", + "22 | \n", + "0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "35851.773438 | \n", + "
| 2018-01-01 23:00:00 | \n", + "40164.0 | \n", + "23 | \n", + "0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "33668.238281 | \n", + "
| 2018-01-02 00:00:00 | \n", + "38608.0 | \n", + "0 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "29717.654297 | \n", + "
145370 rows × 10 columns
\n", + "XGBRegressor(base_score=0.5, booster='gbtree', callbacks=None,\n", + " colsample_bylevel=None, colsample_bynode=None,\n", + " colsample_bytree=None, device=None, early_stopping_rounds=None,\n", + " enable_categorical=False, eval_metric=None, feature_types=None,\n", + " feature_weights=None, gamma=None, grow_policy=None,\n", + " importance_type=None, interaction_constraints=None,\n", + " learning_rate=0.01, max_bin=None, max_cat_threshold=None,\n", + " max_cat_to_onehot=None, max_delta_step=None, max_depth=3,\n", + " max_leaves=None, min_child_weight=None, missing=nan,\n", + " monotone_constraints=None, multi_strategy=None, n_estimators=955,\n", + " n_jobs=None, num_parallel_tree=None, ...)In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
XGBRegressor(base_score=0.5, booster='gbtree', callbacks=None,\n", + " colsample_bylevel=None, colsample_bynode=None,\n", + " colsample_bytree=None, device=None, early_stopping_rounds=None,\n", + " enable_categorical=False, eval_metric=None, feature_types=None,\n", + " feature_weights=None, gamma=None, grow_policy=None,\n", + " importance_type=None, interaction_constraints=None,\n", + " learning_rate=0.01, max_bin=None, max_cat_threshold=None,\n", + " max_cat_to_onehot=None, max_delta_step=None, max_depth=3,\n", + " max_leaves=None, min_child_weight=None, missing=nan,\n", + " monotone_constraints=None, multi_strategy=None, n_estimators=955,\n", + " n_jobs=None, num_parallel_tree=None, ...)
| \n", + " | PJME_MW | \n", + "hour | \n", + "dayofweek | \n", + "quarter | \n", + "month | \n", + "year | \n", + "dayofyear | \n", + "dayofmonth | \n", + "weekofyear | \n", + "lag1 | \n", + "lag2 | \n", + "lag3 | \n", + "isFuture | \n", + "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-08-03 00:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "0 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "8 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "215 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "33539.0 | \n", + "32094.0 | \n", + "31695.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2018-08-03 01:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "1 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "8 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "215 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "30781.0 | \n", + "29503.0 | \n", + "29128.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2018-08-03 02:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "2 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "8 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "215 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "29015.0 | \n", + "27712.0 | \n", + "27373.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2018-08-03 03:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "3 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "8 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "215 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "27884.0 | \n", + "26535.0 | \n", + "26233.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2018-08-03 04:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "4 | \n", + "4 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "8 | \n", + "2018 | \n", + "215 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "27223.0 | \n", + "25870.0 | \n", + "25643.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| ... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "... | \n", + "
| 2019-07-31 20:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "20 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "7 | \n", + "2019 | \n", + "212 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "46912.0 | \n", + "39352.0 | \n", + "40243.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2019-07-31 21:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "21 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "7 | \n", + "2019 | \n", + "212 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "45985.0 | \n", + "38699.0 | \n", + "39183.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2019-07-31 22:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "22 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "7 | \n", + "2019 | \n", + "212 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "44094.0 | \n", + "37346.0 | \n", + "37759.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2019-07-31 23:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "23 | \n", + "2 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "7 | \n", + "2019 | \n", + "212 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "40666.0 | \n", + "34555.0 | \n", + "34641.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
| 2019-08-01 00:00:00 | \n", + "NaN | \n", + "0 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "3 | \n", + "8 | \n", + "2019 | \n", + "213 | \n", + "1 | \n", + "31 | \n", + "37158.0 | \n", + "31646.0 | \n", + "31470.0 | \n", + "True | \n", + "
8713 rows × 13 columns
\n", + "