Validate PolicyEngine child poverty estimates against RF/OBR benchmarks #1398
Description
Summary
The Resolution Foundation and OBR have published specific child poverty estimates for the November 2025 Autumn Budget. We should validate PolicyEngine's estimates against these benchmarks.
Target Benchmarks
Two-Child Limit Removal
| Source | Children lifted from poverty | Cost (2029-30) |
|---|---|---|
| OBR | 450,000 | £3.0 billion |
| Resolution Foundation | 480,000 | £3.5 billion |
| PolicyEngine | TBD | TBD |
Baseline Child Poverty
| Source | 2024-25 | 2029-30 (no action) |
|---|---|---|
| RF | 31% (4.5m children) | 34% (4.8m children) |
| PolicyEngine | TBD | TBD |
Methodology Differences to Consider
- Nowcasting: RF uses FRS with ONS price index nowcasting
- Earnings growth: RF uses Bank of England/OBR wage forecasts with spillover effects
- Housing costs: RF uses ONS PIPR for rent inflation
- Take-up assumptions: Different benefit take-up rate assumptions
Tasks
- Run PolicyEngine simulation for two-child limit removal
- Compare fiscal cost estimates with OBR Table 3.2
- Compare child poverty reduction with RF/OBR estimates
- Document any significant discrepancies and their likely causes
- Update documentation if methodology adjustments are needed
Related Issues
- Add page to documentation on differences between our nowcasting and RF's nowcasting #1171 - PE vs RF nowcasting documentation
- Add RF methodology for earnings growth #1179 - RF earnings growth methodology
- Remove universal credit two-child limit (November 2025 Autumn Budget) #1388 - Two-child limit removal implementation
Source
- Resolution Foundation "No half measures": https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/no-half-measures/
- OBR EFO November 2025, Chapter 3
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