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Women on Brexit in the British Election Study

Dr John Lees-Miller
22 Jul 2018

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Summary: Motivation

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  • Eloise identified women aged 30-55 as an important demographic in the 'squishy middle'.
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  • We want to reach this demographic. It may help to understand their views and how they differ from those of the nation as a whole.
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  • The British Election Study surveyed ~30k people in April-June 2016, before the Brexit vote. It asked questions about peoples' views on Brexit (among other things). (There are also more recent updates with fewer Brexit-related questions.)
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Summary: Preliminary Results

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Things that mattered most in the referendum:

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  • Stronger interest in family, fairness, protection of rights
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  • Weaker interest in Sovereignty / EU bureaucracy
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In general, compared to the nation as a whole:

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  • More concerned about impact of immigration on jobs
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  • More concerned about security, crime and safety
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  • Generally more conservative
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  • Less politically engaged / interested
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(*) Subject to many caveats…

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Distribution of Respondents

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  • There are many in Scotland and Wales.
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Total Respondents by NUTS2

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Validation: Topics of Interest

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We brainstormed some topics we think women 30-55 may more be interested in. Do the data agree?

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  • Family
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  • Health
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  • Education
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  • Jobs
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  • Lifestyle, Food
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  • Security, Property
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What matters most to you when deciding how to vote in the EU referendum?

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  • The survey asked this question directly.
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  • It was free text, which BES coded into 15 categories.
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  • What were the main reasons for the nation as a whole?
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  • What reasons were more or less important for women (30-55)? + +
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    • Run t-tests to find which differences are statistically significant (p=0.05).
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For the nation as a whole

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plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-2

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For Women 30-55 (Target)

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plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-3

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Other Topics

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  • Could not find much data on Health, Education, Lifestyle / Food
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  • Did find some on Jobs and Security
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Jobs (and Economy)

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plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-4

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Security (and Crime)

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plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-5

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Other

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plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-6

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Next Steps

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