USE CASE: How many 1 drops/effect of taplands?

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e.g., merfolk with faerie conclave; how many to run, is 10 1 drops optimal for a non-sligh aggro deck.

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Details:

Ok, I don’t feel like jamming games tonight but I have some free time, so I’m going to put together a math post to work out the odds of conclave making 1/3 drops not castable on curve
Anyone want to help me bounce around scenarios? I think our negative conditions are 1+ conclave and a 1 drop without more lands, 2+ conclaves without other lands, or 1+ conclave, 2+ more lands, a 2 drop and a 3 drop
I think those 3 capture all of the main situations where conclave makes our win % worse, right?
Adding to scenario 2, keeping a 1 and top decking a conclave might be a distinct bad scenario
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:40 PM
But wouldn’t a hand with only and island and no vial still be mulliga-ble? It’s almost the same if it’s conclave or an island in that case
I don’t think I’d keep a hand with 1 island even having pierce in hand
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:43 PM
I’d say it’s probably rare enough to consider 1 land + pierce a mulligan
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:43 PM
Plus you’ll have to consider if you’re on the draw the odds of keeping a starting hand with only conclave and top decking another land
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:43 PM
There are times I’d consider it, but less than 1%
I try and stay away from play/draw and just present how often scenarios will occur in a given #of draws
That way you can look at a mulligan to 5 on the draw and figure out %s without me spelling it out, it just gets to be a lot of extra writing
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:46 PM
What would be an acceptable scenario for you? 1 conclave and 1 island in the starting hand?
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:47 PM
I’ve been keeping conclave, island, 1 drop, in my testing if the rest of the hand is reasonable
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:47 PM
Then the math gets much more complex if you’re going to consider all the other cards
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:48 PM
If we just split 1 drops into 4 vial and 4 anything else (CC, Pierce, Dismember) and generalize 2 drops, 3 drops, 4 drops together I don’t think it’s too bad
We’ll see when I sit down with my spreadsheets thougg
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:50 PM
Aren’t you running 7 1 one drops?
4 pierce 3 dismember
Plus 4 vial 11
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:51 PM
Good point
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:51 PM
Bad scenario for example: at least 1 one drop and 1 conclave as the only land
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:52 PM
Trying to use round #s. So 16 non conclave lands, 4 conclaves. 4 vial, 8 1 drops. 20 2 drops, 4 3 drops, 4 4 drops
Yep. Essentially, conclave as only land is always a bed outcome
bad
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:53 PM
Well actually the scenario would be: at least 1 one drop and at least 1 conclave as only land
But if you don’t have 1 drops would you keep a hand with 1 island?
If the answer is yes then conclave as only land without one drops wouldn’t be a bad hand
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:54 PM
Nope, so we’d subtract those instances
That leaves us with essentially conclave + vial is bad, where island + vial is good
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:55 PM
Would you keep a hand with 1 island 1 conclave no 1 drops?
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:56 PM
Assuming 2 drops, yes
And if you have only 2 lands and no 1s, the odds there are good
1 conclave 1 island + bunch of 2 drops is a snap keep
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:57 PM
Problem with grouping cards by cmc is that you don’t consider instances like “non conclave land”)could be mutavault) spell pierce
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:58 PM
Yeah, but that isn’t relevant for this comparison
We boil it down by CMC because I’m not trying to solve the whole deck, just how often conclave is an issue
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 6:58 PM
You’re right it only matters when a conclave could be an island
Erflink - Yesterday at 6:58 PM
Yep, that’s what makes it solvable (I hope)
If for instance, we cut vaults for some reason when we played conclave, we’d have a lot more variables and I’d need someone with more brainpower and time than me
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:00 PM
So for 2 land scenarios, do we consider 1 conc, 1 island, vial, 2 drops bad?
If it was an island, you’d be curving out, so I think we have to
And with a vial in hand, you’re essentially forced to play conclave on turn 2
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:01 PM
Mmm Yes i think that would be bad
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:02 PM
With the exception of drawing a 3rd non-conclave
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:02 PM
That’s why considering the cards you draw is important
It changes everythjng
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:02 PM
Ugh, unless you want to curve into a 3 drop
Yep, draw order matters for the curve scenarios
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:02 PM
I think you’d get nice results if you consider the first 3-4 draw steps
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:03 PM
It’s so much easier if I only have to consider 10 cards drawn, and not 7+1+1+1
But you’re right, I think the order of draws makes enough of a difference in quality of outcomes that it has to be done if I’m going to work this out
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:04 PM
If doesn’t make the calculations worse though just get the odds of drawin a land considering your hand (if you started with 1 island 1 conclave): for first turn it would be 11/53
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:05 PM
So then there’s another subset of outcomes for “top decking the land I need” for a 2, 3, or 4 drop
It doesn’t impact the overall awkwardness %, but it’s something to keep in mind
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:07 PM
Just for the first few ~4 turns because that’s when you should stabilize your land count, plus separate vial in starting hand vs no vial in starting hand as it implies greater needs for land top decking
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:08 PM
Yep. So really it’s 3 scenarios with separate calculations
1-impact on mulligans
2-impact on curve
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:08 PM
For instance it doesn’t hurt much if you get to play 2. 2 drops instead of reeejered and a 2 drop just because you didn’t draw your land
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:08 PM
3-impact on top decks
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:08 PM
Reejerey
If you started with vial I mean
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:09 PM
I’d consider it a bad outcome if I had to play vial, 2, 2, with a reej in hand
Not as bad as a mulligan, but still worse than an island
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:09 PM
It all comes down to personal preference in some scenarios
Erflink - Yesterday at 7:10 PM
That one is just mana efficiency, it reduces the effectiveness of your 4th turn if you have to choose between a 3 drop and 2 x 2 drops
aklepatzky - Yesterday at 7:10 PM
One could prefer leaving an island untapped for a spell pierce in hand and a 2 drop instead of reejerey
So if you consider that a bad scenario it comes down to preference I thibk