'Guessing' here refers to a properly calibrated probability estimate. If we were to guess the gross domestic earnings of The Goonies, the answer would probably be wrong, not through personal faults, but because the question tests exact domain knowledge. Rephrasing the question:
+
“What are your high and low estimates for the gross domestic earnings of the The Goonies? What interval estimate of confidence would you give this range?”
@@ -34,6 +35,7 @@
Researchers have explored the limits and prejudices of probability estimates, and have a few theories on potential causes.
+
Anchoring: the wording and structure of the questions can decrease epistemic accuracy by up to 53 percentage points.
Pattern-seeking habits of humans create the illusion of signal where there is only noisy data.
diff --git a/src/App.svelte b/src/App.svelte
index 5c784ac..ff15522 100644
--- a/src/App.svelte
+++ b/src/App.svelte
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
A tool for calibrated probability estimation
-
+
diff --git a/src/Calibrate.svelte b/src/Calibrate.svelte
index 0998956..d12ccbc 100644
--- a/src/Calibrate.svelte
+++ b/src/Calibrate.svelte
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@
{/each}
-
+
{#if $current > 0}