[Simulating matches using a Poisson model] #2
Description
TL;DR
List of ideas, articles and code snippets to understand the use of a Poisson model to predict goals and matches
Blog Posts
Poisson distribution R tutorial
Danny Page expected goals simulator
Project Idea
- Construct a Poisson model from "number of shots + xG of those shots" predicting "goals" for a given team
- a) Goal simulation (xG, xGA, shots_for, shots_faced_against; clean-sheet probabilities can be included here too)
- b) Match simulation (win_t1/draw/win_t2 probabilities; worth considering opposition strength (FDR from FPL))
- c) Entire season simulation (over all 38 league matches; possibly take into account form over last n matches)
Key theoretical takeaways
- Randomness in Football in general
- Poisson counting process, Poisson distribution
- Simulation of PL matches based on shots (quantity and quality)
Useful Code Snippets
h_scored = rpois(1, 1/2 * (t_ave_h_s + t_ave_a_c))
a_scored = rpois(1, 1/2 * (t_ave_a_s + t_ave_h_c))