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15 changes: 15 additions & 0 deletions package-lock.json

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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions package.json
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},
"devDependencies": {
"@rollup/plugin-commonjs": "^29.0.0",
"@typescript-eslint/types": "^8.53.1",
"@rollup/plugin-node-resolve": "^16.0.3",
"esm-env": "^1.0.0",
"highcharts": "^12.5.0",
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2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions src/About.svelte
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<p>
'Guessing' here refers to a properly calibrated probability estimate. If we were to guess the gross domestic earnings of <em>The Goonies</em>, the answer would probably be wrong, not through personal faults, but because the question tests exact domain knowledge. Rephrasing the question:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p class="m-4">
&ldquo;What are your high and low estimates for the gross domestic earnings of the <em>The Goonies</em>? What interval estimate of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval">confidence</a> would you give this range?&rdquo;
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<p>
Researchers have explored the limits and prejudices of probability estimates, and have a few theories on potential causes<Cite id="Wilson1994"/>.
</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring">Anchoring</a>: the wording and structure of the questions can decrease epistemic accuracy by up to 53 percentage points<Cite id="LichtensteinEtAl1982"/>.</li>
<li>Pattern-seeking habits of humans create the illusion of signal where there is only noisy data<Cite id="Silver2012"/>.</li>
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/App.svelte
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<svelte:head>
<title>A tool for calibrated probability estimation</title>
<html lang="en" />
<html lang="en"></html>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap@5.3.3/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet" integrity="sha384-QWTKZyjpPEjISv5WaRU9OFeRpok6YctnYmDr5pNlyT2bRjXh0JMhjY6hW+ALEwIH" crossorigin="anonymous">
<link href="https://code.highcharts.com/css/highcharts.css" rel="stylesheet">
<link href="bundle.css" rel="stylesheet">
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/Calibrate.svelte
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{/each}

<figure class="highcharts-figure d-flex justify-content-center">
<div id="container" class="highcharts-light"/>
<div id="container" class="highcharts-light"></div>
</figure>

{#if $current > 0}
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